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Showing posts with label The precision rockets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The precision rockets. Show all posts

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Nasrallah: ‘Full reason to believe I myself will pray in al-Quds (Jerusalem)’ – English Subs

Source

Description:
In a recent extended interview marking 13 years after the major conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that based on “logic” and the “development of events in the region and the world”, he has great hope that he himself will “pray in the al-Aqsa Mosque in al-Quds (Jerusalem)”.
Earlier in the interview, Nasrallah shared with viewers detailed war-time plans using maps of the ‘Israeli entity’ and its major political, financial, military, and industrial centres and facilities, all of which have been designated as potential targets of Hezbollah’s precision-guided missiles ‘if Israel were to wage another war on Lebanon’.
Source: Al-Manar TV (YouTube)
Date: 12 July, 2019
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Wednesday, July 24, 2019

The filigree blow dealt to the Arabian “Patriot” highlighted the critical shortcomings of the AN/MPQ-65 radar


July 23, 2019
The filigree blow dealt to the Arabian “Patriot” highlighted the critical shortcomings of the AN/MPQ-65 radar
Recent information about the successful use of a kamikaze drone from the “Samad-1/3” family (and, perhaps, the tactical “Quds” cruise missiles too) against at least two M903 launchers of the Arabian surface-to-air missile system “Patriot PAC-3” covering the fortified area of the ground forces of Saudi Arabia and Sudanese hired paramilitary forces in the border province of Marib (near the contact line between the forces of the “Arabian coalition” and the army divisions of the Houthi Yemeni insurgents) became a subject of heated debates in the western and Russian military-analytical communities.
All the piquancy of the event is not so much that this “surprise” was made by the missile units of the “Ansar Allah” grouping on July 4th 2019 (during the celebration of US Independence Day), but in the lack of any information about bringing the “Patriot” SAM system battery into full combat readiness, providing an azimuthal corrective turn of inclined M903 launching units in the direction of the coming means of air attack, which in our case is the “Samad” kamikaze drones or the “Quds” tactical missiles. The news agencies “Free News”, “Al-Masdar News”, and “Military-industrial courier”, with reference to informed sources in the operational staff of “Ansar Allah” and the air force of Saudi Arabia, reported about this.
The reasons for the “silence” of the Arabian “Patriot” lie in the technological “dumbness” of the AN/MPQ-53/65 radars.
On the basis of the aforementioned circumstance it is possible to immediately draw several fundamental and interesting conclusions that are capable of serving excellent service to the specialists of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the command of the Iranian Armed Forces in the development of various techniques of suppressing a SAM system from the family “Patriot PAC-2/3”. Considering the extremely difficult and almost unpredictable operational-tactical situation on the Yemen battlefield caused by sudden and high-intensity missile and artillery duels between the Houthis and the forces of the “Arabian coalition”, it is easy to assume that the multipurpose detection, illumination, and targeting radar station of AN/MPQ-53/65, which is a part of the “Patriot” that was subjected to a blow, was with a maximum share of probability on duty. Therefore, observation of the airspace over Yemen had to be carried out in the most missile-prone direction (for the purpose of the emergence of 8K14 operational-tactical ballistic missiles from the “Elbrus” complex, 9M79 “Tochka”, “Badr-1P”, and different types of cruise missiles and drones) in the azimuthal sector from +45° to -45 ° (an observation zone of 90 degrees), and in the elevation plane – from 1° to 73°.
At first sight, taking into account the awareness of the Arabian calculation of the “Patriot PAC-3” concerning the estimated flight trajectories of the Yemen operational tactical ballistic and cruise missiles, the MLRS AN/MPQ-53 (or its more modern modification AN/MPQ-65) had to be more than enough for the effective scanning of the assigned area of airspace and blocking any Houthi missile strikes; especially since the units of fire of the PAC-3 complexes can brag of the existence of the MIM-104F PAC-3MSE anti-missiles with the possibility of the over-the-horizon destruction of low-altitude hardly noticeable targets designated by the radar detecting E-3A planes, which the Saudi Arabian Royal Air Force has at its disposal. Nevertheless, virtuosos from the missiles units of “Ansar Allah” probed the technological shortcomings of the radars of the AN/MPQ-53/65 family and their working regime, then smashed to smithereens the myth made by the PR managers of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon about the highest level of survivability of PAC-3 during intensive massive missile strikes carried out by the enemy. What shortcomings can we talk about?
First of all, it is this rather big restriction on the minimum height of the targets accompanied during passage and “locked on” by AN/MPQ-53/65 radars, which totals 0.03 km (30m), while the illuminating and targeting radars 30H6E and 9C36 of the S-300PM1 and “Buk-M2” systems work on superlow-altitude objects operating at heights of 10-15m! This shortcoming is the peculiar “genetic disease” of stations from the MPQ-53 family connected to the minimum ray elevation angle of 1 degree, while the scanning elevation zone of other modern MLRS begins either with 0 degrees, or with negative indicators (-4 to -7 degrees): a bright example of this is the multi-height 96L6 detector and the low-altitude “Podlet-K1” detector installed on S-400 “Triumf” systems. Therefore, the drones and cruise missiles of the Houthis “sneaking” at the height of 15-20m could “bypass” the observation elevation zone of the MPQ-53. The situation could be saved by the radar detecting E-3A “Sentry” planes, which would give to “Patriot” a targeting calculation on the “Link-16” channel, but probably at that time no plane was carrying out combat duty.
Secondly, it is probable that at this time the Arabian “Patriot” calculation used the “sector search” mode for targets, when the phased array MPQ-53/65 passive scanning ray, guided by the 5161 ferrite phase shifters, processes only the most priority and missile-prone sectors (chosen by operators manually, according to the tactical situation) from the 32 provided by the software of the MPQ-53 radars and the AN/MSQ-132 command and control station. Such a mode could be chosen by the Saudis for work only against the “Ansar Allah” ballistic missiles, the descending trajectory arcs of which differ in their huge angles, while the low-altitude area appeared to be absolutely “unobservable”.
And lastly and thirdly, this is the inability of MLRS AN/MPQ-53/65 to work in the mode of an all-round radar detector (with 360-degree coverage of space in the azimuthal plane and the high frequency of updating information concerning the air situation thanks to the rotation of the antenna post), which the modern “Arabel” MLRS (a part of the SAMP-T surface-to-air missile system) or 50H6, which was added to the domestic new-generation SAM system S-350 “Vityaz”, are capable of. As a result, the absence in the structure of the “Patriot PAC-3” battery of an additional radar detector (for example, the mobile USA AN/TPS-75 “Tipsy” radar station) gave big difficulties for the command of the “Ansar Allah” missile brigades concerning activity in respect of creating difficult flight trajectories for the “Samad” drone and the “Quds” cruise missiles for the subsequent access to the AN/MPQ-65 radar in the side hemispheres (with angles of approach of more than 45 degrees) which do not enter the viewing field of the observation station any more; the result is evident.

Monday, July 22, 2019

WHAT MAKES IRAN STRONG ENOUGH TO STAND AGAINST A SUPERPOWER LIKE THE USA?









By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s the Islamic Republic of Iran deployed the slogan “Karbala, Karbala we are coming” ( كربلا كربلا ما دارييم مياييم) to “defend the value of Islam”. In Syria the battle cry “Zeinab shall not be abducted twice” helped mobilise Shia allies and rally  thousands of men to fight the Sunni Takfiri of al-Qaeda and the “Islamic State” (ISIS).
Today, despite the existential battle between Iran and the US, the “Islamic Republic” no longer uses religious slogans, but is instead rallying support on a national basis. Even Iranians who disagree with the present regime are supporting their country in the face of the aggressive posture of the US. Iranian pragmatists were disappointed by the US’s unlawful revocation of the JCPOA nuclear deal. Severe sanctions are being imposed on the Iranian people because Trump ditched the deal to please Netanyahu and to spite his predecessor Obama. In the face of these sanctions, the Islamic Republic refuses to bow to US dictates. Unlike other Middle Eastern countries who willingly submit to Trump’s blackmail and bullying, Iran says “NO” to the superpower. Why? How can Iran do what Saudi Arabia and other regional powers could do but will not?
Iran manufactures its own tanksmissiles,submarines and is a member of the global club of nuclear science capable countries.
Iran has strong allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan and Yemen and can rely on them to take part in any war imposed on Tehran, even one imposed by the US.
Iran has democratically elected members of the parliament and a President who serves a four-year mandate and has the right for a single term renewal if he wins via the ballot, unlike Arab states who have presidents for life or inherited monarchies. Christians and Jews are recognised minorities in Iran; the Jews have a member of the Parliament, Siamak Moreh, and feel “safe and respected”. They number around 15,000 out of 85 million Iranians and have more than 25 synagogues.
Iran has faced US sanctions for over 40 years without bowing to US demands. It has confronted the US in many arenas around the Middle East and recently shot down a drone to send the clear message that it is ready to face war and its consequences, if war is imposed on it. Iran is ready to pay the price of defending its air, water and lands; it will not compromise on any violations of its sovereignty even by a superpower like the US. Iran is sending a message to the US, its main ally Israel, and to all Middle Eastern countries: it will retaliate harshly against any aggression.
Iran is not afraid of regime-change attempts because its electoral system is in the hands of the people, and, if hit internally, Iran has the capacity to hit back anywhere its allies are deployed, against its regional enemies wherever they are deployed.
Iran’s situation should not be unique or surprising. It is natural to have democratic institutions. It is normal for a country to have allies ready to stand by and lend support when needed. It is ordinary for any country to use force, when needed, to defend its sovereignty and protect its borders. Citizens support their government and armed forces when they defend the country against aggression and when their rulers take tough and courageous decisions.
There are no voices in Iran calling for the fall of the current regime despite the US “maximum pressure”. The Iranian President responded with “maximum patience” for 14 months before taking the first legal step to partially withdraw from the nuclear deal. Rouhani then moved towards a “confrontational strategy” and has ended up adopting a “strategy of equal response” against any attack. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has no need of religious slogans this time because Iranians are united, regardless of ethnicity, behind their leaders and against the US. Trump has managed to unite the pragmatists and the radicals under one flag, against him.







Europe rushed to play a mediation role in a failed attempt to ease tensions between the US and Iran. European leaders have little leverage against President Trump because they are far from united, even if they are signatories of the JCPOA nuclear deal and are therefore bound to respect it. Iran imposed on Europe the devising of a new payment system, INSTEX, notwithstanding its lack of effectiveness. INSTEX shows the will of European leaders to accommodate Iran in order to stop its production of nuclear bombs. That is a substantial European effort.
Iran will not give up on its allies neither would they because they are at the forefront of its national security and the defenders of its values and existence. Without them a confrontational policy towards US hegemony would not be possible. The harsh sanctions on Iran have hurt its allies but have not deteriorated or even affected their military capabilities.
Iran will not give up on its missile capabilities because they are its only defensive mechanism and potential. Iran is ready to go to war; it will not abandon its missile production and development. It has delivered many of these missile capabilities to allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Iran will not submit to the blackmail by which Trump extorts hundreds of billions of dollars from Middle Eastern countries by forcing them to buy US weapons and spare parts. Middle Eastern countries, like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar, pay handsome ransoms to limit the damage of Trump’s bullying.
If all these Middle Eastern countries were to stand up against the “neighbourhood bully” as Iran has done, and invest a fraction of what they are paying Trump in the region’s development and prosperity, the US would be incapable of racketeering Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates.
And last but not least, Iran rejects the plan Trump is attempting to impose on the Palestinians: a demand that they sell their territories for a handful of dollars. Many Middle Eastern countries have adopted the childish plan of an amateur – Jared Kushner, who holds power only because he is the US President’s son-in-law – who believed he could achieve what many experienced presidents and diplomats failed to do over decades. Iran, together with Iraq, Lebanon and Kuwait, has rejected the “Deal of the Century”.
Trump admits that he understands only “the language of figures and money”. Iran’s response to the US blackmail strategy embodies the perception that this world only respects and understands those who manifest strength and refuse to submit to coercion, and its conscience is only awakened by those who have the will to resist.
Proofread by: C.G.B 

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Hezbollah Threat Prompts ‘Israel’ to Boost Anti-Missile Protection at 20 Strategic Sites: Haaretz


Amid concern among military officials of an attack by Hezbollah, the “Israeli” entity’s army plans to provide anti-missile protection to 20 key sites throughout the entity.
According to “Israeli” intelligence assessments, Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah may order strikes on strategic sites in the “Israeli” entity in order to weaken its fighting capability and obtain a propaganda victory.
Because of these assessments, and following a 2016 comptroller report that found flaws in existing protections, the “Israeli” army’s “Home Front Command” has mapped out strategic sites that could be attack targets. According to the command, damage to these sites could bring daily life to a halt for a lengthy period of time during an emergency.
The military has decided to shield several sites in every part of the country. At these sites, the military will construct walls made of reinforced concrete, strengthen ceilings and install blast-proof doors and anti-shrapnel protection.
The “Israeli” entity believes that Hezbollah has been able to improve the precision targeting capabilities of its missiles. Some of the airstrikes attributed to the entity in Syria were reportedly aimed at thwarting the group’s attempts to acquire means to increase its missiles’ precision.
The threat also comes from the besieged Gaza Strip. They also believe that Hezbollah possesses a larger arsenal of missiles, meaning that large-scale fire from the north increases the statistical chance of striking an important site.
“Israeli” media have closely monitored Sayyed Nasrallah’s interview, shedding light on the recently mentioned strategic sites in the entity that are within Hezbollah’s range. In the television interview, Sayyed Nasrallah presented a map of the “Israeli” entity and said that “Hezbollah can cause massive damage.”
According to Sayyed Nasrallah, the coastal area between Netanya and Ashdod is “the most strategic area. This area included sites like the airport, weapons depots, the Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports, and more.” In the interview, held to mark 13 years since the Second Lebanon War, Sayyed Nasrallah said Hezbollah has significantly increased its capabilities. “We have more advanced offensive weapons, in terms of both quality and quantity,” he said. “We have precision missiles and drones.”
The comptroller’s report released three years ago warned that the “Israeli” regime and emergency services needed to address missile fire and natural disasters urgently.
In 2018, “Israel” earmarked a $42 million budget for protecting buildings around the entity from rockets, with the highest priority being non-military buildings and infrastructure.
Besides issuing a tender for work protecting infrastructure sites, the entity’s “Home Front Command” and War Ministry asked private companies to suggest ways to protect units that do not have shelters. Also last year, the “Home Front Command’s” chief said that 2.5 million “Israelis” do not have adequate protection from rockets, with some 700,000 units lacking protection.

Hezbollah Threat Prompts ‘Israel’ to Boost Anti-Missile Protection at 20 Strategic Sites: Haaretz

July 17, 2019
Capture
The Israeli army’s ‘Home’ Front Command plans to provide anti-missile protection to 20 key sites throughout the country, amid concern among the military officials that Hezbollah will target them, according to Haaretz paper.
“Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah may order strikes on strategic sites in ‘Israel’ in order to weaken Israel’s fighting capability and obtain a propaganda victory.”
Haaretz recalled the ‘state’ comptroller’s report in 2016 which indicated the flaws in existing protections, adding that the ‘Home’ Front Command has mapped out strategic sites that could be attack targets.
“According to the command, damage to these sites could bring daily life to a halt for a lengthy period of time during an emergency.”
The Zionist military has decided to shield several sites in every part of the entity, according to the paper which added that at these sites, the military will construct walls made of reinforced concrete, strengthen ceilings and install blast-proof doors and anti-shrapnel protection.
(Sayyed) Nasrallah recently mentioned strategic sites in ‘Israel’ that would be targeted by Hezbollah, the Israeli paper added.
“In a television interview, (Sayyed) Nasrallah presented a map of Israel and said that Hezbollah can cause massive damage.”
“According to (Sayyed) Nasrallah, the coastal area between Netanya and Ashdod is ‘the most strategic area. This area included sites like the airport, weapons depots, the Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports, and more.’ In the interview, held to mark 13 years since the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah said Hezbollah has significantly increased its capabilities. ‘We have more advanced offensive weapons, in terms of both quality and quantity,’ he said. ‘We have precision missiles and drones’.”
SourceHaaretz
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Sunday, July 7, 2019

Nasrallah: US-backed Axis Defeated, We Have Enough Missiles to Redraw the Map of the Middle East


 
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Transcript:
[…] Another element indicating (the improbability of a war against Iran) is the field data, and I mean the (triple) Summit which I have just mentioned. And we are now entering the (4th section of my speech devoted to the triple) Arab Summit (in Mecca on May 30-June 1). The Summit was convened in emergency. Why? There are two reasons, two clear reasons that are mentioned in the (final) statements (of the Summit).
The first reason… The first reason… I remember that during the first days of the war of aggression against Yemen, His Eminence the (Supreme) Leader, Sayed [Khamenei], said that the young (fighters) of Yemen would rub the Al-Saud’s noses in dirt. Some days ago, the Saudi (army) bit the dust (once again). That’s what happened.
The first reason (for the improbability of war against Iran), that I mentioned earlier, is that Saudi Arabia has recognized the fact that there was no way out against the missiles of the Yemeni army and Popular Defense Committees, which they call the ‘Houthi’ missiles, and against their drones, and my proof is what happened in Yanbu’ (strikes of a Yemeni drone against oil installations in Saudi Arabia). It is a failure, a complete disaster. On the technical, military, security levels, and on every other level, it is a colossal failure. And it is a great success for our Yemeni brothers.

And that’s why in the joint statement at the conclusion of the Arab Summit, from the first line, points 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 only speak of Houthis, Houthis and yet again Houthis, as well as Iran. This clearly shows how much the issue of our Yemeni brothers is present and is the main cause for convening this triple Summit.
The second reason (indicating the improbability of a war against Iran) is that the Saudi regime and its allies understood with certainty that there will be no US war against Iran. You are dreaming (O Saudis), you spend your money for nothing and you incite for war to no avail. Trump will not fight for you, while it was your greatest hope. The last thing the Saudis had left was this hope (on which they have staked everything). Is there anything they can do? Do the Saud have alternatives (to prevail)? Who will go to war against Iran? The Saud themselves? While in Yemen, according to the information of the Saudis themselves, these young Yemeni fighters who have no army, no huge capacities, who are besieged, isolated, hungry, sick, whatever you want, but Saudi Arabia fails, is defeated and broken against them! And you (the Saudis) would go to war against (such a formidable power as) Iran? Who (will dare attack Iran)? Will they hire Netanyahu to launch a war against Iran? Let him first take care of his own problems (electoral and with Israeli justice)!
It’s the end of the road (for the Saud)! All their plans and hopes rested, in recent weeks, on Trump, on Trump’s incitement (to war), on Bolton, on Pompeo and all their fellow evil men in b or p, who were threatening to attack Iran and devastate this country. But it’s over. All their hopes were dashed.
That is why this Summit was convened in Mecca, as I said, to call the Arab and Muslim worlds and the Gulf countries for help. ‘Hasten therefore (to our help), O Arabs’ (cried the Al-Saud dynasty)! I wrote here… Where is this paper?… I wrote (a summary about it)… “Saudi Arabia convened the triple Summit to strengthen itself with the support of the Gulf it has torn apart…” For who is responsible for the crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council? Saudi Arabia! “(Saudi Arabia convened the triple Summit) to strengthen itself with the support of the Gulf it has torn apart, of the Arabs it has crushed…” Is there a single Arab country left where Saudi Arabia has not created discord and division? And until now, up to this very day, there are Arab countries torn with civil wars, and Saudi Arabia is (the main) responsible. And there are Arab countries under threat of falling into civil wars (Algeria, Sudan…), and we must look (for the hand of) Saudi Arabia (behind it). “(Saudi Arabia convened the triple Summit to strengthen itself with the support of the Gulf it has torn apart), of the Arabs it has crushed and of the Muslims among whom it has spread the sedition of takfir.”
See Pakistan: Saudi Arabia wants to become stronger by getting the support of this country, while it propagated its takfiri ideology there among the Taliban, who created innumerable problems for the Pakistani military and the Pakistani people. Today, Saudi Arabia is calling on all these countries to save it (and get it out of the Yemeni quagmire).
First, regarding the Summit… I will conclude my remarks with a few words. Regarding the (Mecca) Summit, such is the context that explains it. It is a call for help, a cry for help, an intercessory request… You know it’s Ramadan (where all wishes can be fulfilled), so the Saudis make prayers, express wishes, cajole (the Arab governments) so that they’d fulfill their wishes, because of their failure and powerlessness, and because their hopes were dashed. The opposite Axis (United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia) isn’t in any case in a position of strength. It is in a position of weakness and failure, desperate, greatly confused and completely discouraged. This is the truth.
Second, let us consider the Joint Statement issued after the Summit. We see that it is composed of 10 points, which speak only of Iran and the “Houthis”, as they call them, but in the end of this Statement, as we commemorate the International Day of Al-Quds (Jerusalem), at the very end of this Statement, really the last two lines, we read: “And about the Palestinian cause, the main cause of the Arabs, the Summit has confirmed its commitment to the resolutions of the 29th Arab Summit (of April 2018) in Dhahran (Saudi Arabia), or Al-Quds Summit, and the resolutions of the 30th Arab Summit in Tunis (in March 2019).” Period. They did not even devote two lines to Palestine! They gave it only a line and a half of their final Statement! That’s the importance of Palestine for the Arab Summit. I do not even know if they actually talked about it (during their discussions), I just read the final Statement.
And about the Summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, there is a really funny thing, the 4th point. Listen to the 4th point (of the final Statement) of the Summit of the Council of the Gulf Cooperation: “Confirms the strength, harmony and resolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the unity of its members around a common line to face these threats.” And they say that while they are besieging Qatar! They have been besieging the State and the people of Qatar for over a year! It’s really hilarious, Uncle! By God, some people really don’t realize that they have become the laughing stock of the world! The whole world mocks them, demeans and humiliates them!
Another point about the Arab Summit, we have a duty to praise the position expressed by Iraq and the President of the Republic of Iraq. It’s a remarkable position, courageous and excellent. What a shame that the rest of the Arab Presidents, Kings and Emirs did not talk the same way! And the Iraqi delegation has not said that they wanted to wage war against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or anyone, nothing like it! They spoke in a balanced manner (without taking sides with Iran nor Saudi Arabia). You could do the same thing (and display a conciliatory neutrality). What prevented you from doing so, O Arabs? What a pity that (the participants of this) Summit, in spite of the failure, powerlessness and confusion (of Saudi Arabia), and the economic exploitation of the situation by the United States, have not talked in conciliatory terms about Iran, when Iran itself, a few days ago, said via its delegates that they were ready to talk with the Gulf states, and conclude pacts of non-aggression with them! Why did they not adopt the same open and conciliatory diplomatic language? If they had done so, their money, their safety, their security, their interests and even their dignity would not be violated by Trump morning and evening.
On the Arab Summit, I have one more thing to say: as a Lebanese party who participate in the government of Lebanon, we (Hezbollah) consider that the position of the official Lebanese delegation to the Arab Summit contradicts the Ministerial Declaration (of the Hariri government) and violates the commitments and promises of the Lebanese government, who received the confidence of the Parliament on the basis of this Declaration. Where is the promised neutrality, O official Lebanese delegation to the holy city of Mecca? You could have said… It was not even required that you take a position similar to that of Iraq. You could simply have said that the Lebanese government was committed to neutrality (in regional conflicts) and that such a stance was required in the national interest of Lebanon, which had to remain neutral, as it had done in previous Summits.
That is why we reject this position (expressed by the Lebanese delegation), which we consider unacceptable and condemn because it does not represent Lebanon. It represents only the members of the delegation (as individuals) or the political parties they belong to. It is impossible that this be the official position of Lebanon, a position which publishes a Statement with 10 paragraphs condemning Iran and only dedicates a line and a half to Palestine, the whole Statement expressing support for an Axis (US-Saudi-Israeli) against another (the Axis of Resistance).
Of course, the Future party could have made a statement of their own supporting eloquently the Final Statement of this Summit held in Holy Mecca, it is their natural right. We wouldn’t mind at all because (it is common knowledge) that we have opposite stances (on regional issues). We have already said that neutrality is not required of political forces. And we are the first not being neutral (and strongly and publicly announcing our stances against the US, Israel, the Saud…). But we agreed that the Lebanese government would remain neutral. The Lebanese State must remain neutral (because it is composed of both pro-American and pro-Iranian forces). And what happened in Mecca is contrary to the commitments and promises (made by the Future Alliance heading the government), and to Lebanon’s national interest.
This brings me to the last point (of my speech). (I’m sorry) for being so long, on this night of Ramadan, but it is a sensitive issue whose mention cannot be postponed. Regarding the delimitation of the (land and sea) borders (between Lebanon and Israel), as I have said repeatedly, as a Resistance, we have no problem and we comply with the decisions of the State. And for all that is happening at the borders, we leave everything in the hands of the State, whether what is happening is good or bad, right or wrong. Regarding the demarcation of our land and sea borders, we will respect all the decisions of State, (and we do not have a say).
And by making these statements, I do not exaggerate. Some brothers think that my words are conciliatory but do not coincide with reality, but no, I tell the strict truth when I say that we in Hezbollah trust the Lebanese officials who are in charge of this issue, and who are committed to upholding all Lebanon’s rights to land and water, in terms of maritime (space), oil and gas (resources present in the Mediterranean). We have (full) confidence in them, and that’s why we do not intervene in this issue. So much for the positive points, for I will now turn to a very different point.
On this issue, what are the United States striving to achieve through (their envoy) Mr. [David] Satterfield and his ilk? The USA are very strong to exploit all things, and exploit (all situations) in an evil way (in their interests and to our detriment). Since Lebanon needs a rapid delineation of borders, especially at sea, to (be able to exploit) oil and gas (resources at sea), and since Lebanon needs a calm situation in order to get financial loans —for we speak mainly about loans, not grants—, in this context, the United States come to… I hope that all the Lebanese will listen to me.
The United States wants to exploit the (indirect) negotiations (between Lebanon and Israel) on the demarcation of land and maritime borders to solve another adjacent, unrelated problem in the sole interest of Israel, and that Israel has been unable to resolve for years, namely precision missiles and the manufacture of precision missiles.
For over two years, (we have been contacted constantly by) ambassadors, embassies, foreign intelligence services, including those countries that consider us officially as terrorists, it does not bother them. They asked us the following questions, or (rather) addressed us the following messages: you have precision missiles, and this is something that Israel will not tolerate, and when Israel will learn their place (of storage), they will bomb them. That’s the message that we kept receiving for over two years. That’s (the first point).
The second point was the accusation that we’d have precision missile factories in Lebanon, which is (allegedly) a red line for Israel that will not be tolerated, and the warning that if Israel gets to know their location, they will bomb them. We hid this matter to the public for two years so as not to worry anyone, and to settle this matter behind the scenes. But some things happened during this week that lead me to speak out today because I think this whole issue will soon be discussed in the media, this topic being debated today in wider circles. I prefer to publicly state our position on this issue, rather than let the (State) officials being responsible for sending messages or answering questions (about this topic), and it is better that these answers come directly from me so that the United States, Israel and others receive them distinctly. (That’s better), isn’t it? That’s why I mention it.
Regarding the first point, the precision missiles issue, we are people who always tell the truth, we never lie. We can of course not reveal the truth without lying, or tell only part of the truth, but we never lie. That’s why when they asked us (if we had precision missiles), we answered that yes, we had precision missiles, and then you remember that two years ago, the tenth day (of ‘Ashura), I announced quite clearly that we have precision missiles able to hit all the targets required in the Zionist entity.
And today, on this (International) Day of Al-Quds (Jerusalem),on the 40th anniversary of the announcement of this Day, I say to the world that yes, we have in Lebanon enough precision missiles to change the face of the region and (upset) all equations!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
But I say nothing new. That’s what I said for ‘Ashura two years ago. And to all those who have asked us, we said yes, we had precision missiles. And to all those who said or transmitted messages (Israeli threats), we said that there was no problem… It’s been 1, 2 and 3 years that these messages circulate, and that our response has been given and reached Israel: any time they tried to intimidate us by speaking of Israel, of red lines, of unacceptable things, of bombing, of (a violent) reaction, etc., our answer was clear, and I then repeated it publicly (in an interview) with Al-Mayadeen TV and then in a live speech. And I’ll repeat it again: we said that against any aggression, any Israeli strike against any target related to the Resistance in Lebanon, be it missiles or anything else, Hezbollah will retaliate immediately, directly and with (great) force!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
 
And that’s why for 1 year, 2 years and 3 years now, they never bombed (Lebanon). And even more, Israel is going to the UN to (complain) that under the Al-Ahed football stadium, there would be missiles, and at such other place as well, (and then the UN) asks the government to verify if missiles are present at a given location, etc. It is not out of manners or decency that Israel does not strike our missiles. It is because we are strong that they don’t dare to do so (because they fear our retaliation), and that we will respond to any aggression by a similar attack, if not more!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
 
The issue of precision missiles was therefore over (with a dead end for Israel). No one can do anything against it. So the issue has been upgraded with the accusation of possession of precision missile factories (in Lebanon). A few months ago, a (Lebanese) official said that the United States had contacted him to tell him this and this. I replied: “My dear official —I do not say anything specific to protect his identity—, this information is false. We do not have —and I speak with complete frankness— we have no precision missile factory in Lebanon.” He asked if the Iranians had such factories in Lebanon. I told him that the Iranians had no factory in Lebanon, be it for precision missiles or other missiles, or anything at all.So far —I say so far, until tonight, until this International Day of Al-Quds—, there are no precision missile factories (in Lebanon). So the Americans left and came back later (with new charges), saying that there were such factories in such and such place, until what they said recently, namely that the process of delimitation of maritime borders was obstructed by the fact that in such region, there were precision missile factories. Again, several Lebanese officials asked me about it, and I said that it was not true. In this region, there are military facilities, supplies and equipment of Hezbollah, but no precision missile factory. That’s all.What is my point? These (false accusations) have been accompanied by various threats. I will not say what the threats were because there is no reason for me to reveal them, but several threats were made, so that Lebanon settles this issue (precision missile factories) and destroys such and such installations, razes them to the ground and terminates them. But my dear (US) friends, do you know who you are dealing with? In what world do you live (to believe that your threats can frighten Hezbollah)? It is absolutely inconceivable for us.In addition, we, in Hezbollah, are more trustworthy and reliable than the Americans and their predecessors, and more trustworthy and reliable than the Israelis and their predecessors. When I tell you that there is no precision missile factories, this means that there is none. And if there were such factories, I would have said this evening on TV that there are such factories, as I’ll prove it in a moment.I will explain my problem with this question and conclude my speech. My problem is that… That’s why I did not want to discuss this issue only with Lebanese officials, but I wish that we all (Lebanese) take part in it. The very discussion of such issues with the United States, merely allowing them to ask us about (our weapons), this door should be in my opinion closed. It is not their business, they have no right to inquire about our weapons. The US does not have any right to meddle in it. Whether there are precision missile factories in Lebanon or not, it is not their business. Israel, which is right next to us, manufactures missiles, warplanes, tanks, nuclear and chemical weapons. Let them go there and make the same requests! As for us, it is our right —and that’s what I want to add this evening—, it is our absolute right to possess any type of weapons to defend our country. And it is our absolute right to manufacture any type of weapons, because to have weapons, there are only three possibilities: either you buy them, or someone gives them to you, or you manufacture them.In Gaza, what do they do? They make them. In Yemen, what do they do? They make them. But the Saudi mentality is unable to conceive that Yemenis can manufacture their own missiles and drones (and they accuse Iran of supplying them). What do you want me to do about it? In Iran, what are they doing? They manufacture their own weapons! And we absolutely have the right to do the same. I affirm that the United States do not have the right to debate with us on this right. That’s the first point. How does it concern you? Whether we have such factories or not, it’s none of your business. I assure you that there are no such factories yet, but you have no right to ask me at the first place! Whether there are such factories or not, mind your own business! We have every right to have all the weapons that allow us to defend our country, whether we buy them, they are given to us or we manufacture them. That’s the first point.
Second, if the United States continue to bring this issue, I tell them this: we have all the technical and human capacity, thanks to our youth, to manufacture precision missiles, and we are perfectly able to import in Lebanon all the equipment required to open such factories. I declare tonight that if the United States continue to bring up this issue, let the whole world know that we will open precision missile factories in Lebanon!
[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
 
So far, we have no such factories (in Lebanon), but if they continue to bring up this issue, they will convince us to do so! Then, the government talks about many problems of the Lebanese industry. Today, one of the greatest evils in the world is arms sales… Why are you laughing, I’m serious! We are able to manufacture precision missiles and sell them to the world, and thus help the Lebanese Treasury. Is that okay with you?This is why I advise Satterfield to stay calm and do the job he is asked to do (without encroaching on our business), since he claims to be there to help… But who does he (really want to) help? Because you know that in general, the United States are not intermediaries. They are only there to lobby and defend the interests of Israel, and God help our Lebanese brothers responsible for these negotiations. Let Satterfield close this file and not waste his time in (idle) threats, and stop exerting himself. He should stop exerting himself (in vain).This is our natural right (to have all the weapons required), we will remain attached thereto, and threats lead to nothing with us. These threats are not new, but date back to 2 or 3 years. I have answered them, and I do not want to have to repeat myself, okay? Be it now, before or after, our position remains the same.In conclusion, O my dear and noble brothers, on this Day of Al-Quds, on this 40th year of the celebration of this Day, our (Resistance) Axis is in a position of strength, as is our front (the battlefield). It is true that in recent years we have made many sacrifices, but by the grace of the blood of martyrs, we got out of all these sacrifices stronger and more present. And it is full of strength, determination, faith and confidence that I tell you all that we can defeat the Deal of the Century and make it fail, and at the forefront the Palestinian people: when Palestinians are unanimous in their sovereign position, as I called it, about the Deal of the Century and the Conference in Bahrain (which are condemned by all factions), nobody can impose anything, neither to Palestinians nor to the region.When the Syrian people refuse to cede the Golan, Golan will never become Israel’s, even if Trump redraws maps and signs below, as announced by Netanyahu yesterday. Let them sign anything they want, do what they want, and say whatever they want, (it will be futile). If we stay present in the field, on all battlefields, if we remain attached to our rights, and above all, before, after and with everything, if we trust in God and in His promise of victory, if we believe in Him, in our peoples, in our generation, in our men, in our women, in our brains and in our minds and willpower, the future belongs to Al-Quds, and not to Trump or to all the insignificant midgets who work for Trump.Peace be upon the soul of the great Khomeini, who founded this Day, happy (al-Quds) holiday, and may God grant you victory and glory.
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“Any amount counts, because a little money here and there, it’s like drops of water that can become rivers, seas or oceans…” Hassan Nasrallah

Friday, May 3, 2019

جرعة قاتلة من الحرب النفسية


مايو 3, 2019

ناصر قنديل
– بمعنى الوفاء وقيمه وتوقيته، أطلق الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله تكريماً للقائد الشهيد مصطفى بدر الدين، جرعة قاتلة من جرعات حربه النفسية سيصير اسمها «جرعة ذوالفقار»، ومع قراءة الإسرائيليين لهذا المقال، وهم يقرأونه بمواظبة ويحللون، سيسهرون وقد قدموا للمقاومة ما يكفي من الدلائل على ابتلاع جرعة ذو الفقار، فقاموا يحاولون في الليل تحت عيون المقاومة التي لا تنام، تمويه الهدف الأهم من مستودعات الأمونيا في حيفا، فيقدّمون ربما هدفاً آخر يضيفه المقاومون إلى بنك الأهداف الخطيرة للحرب المقبلة، وسيسهرون وقد أطلقوا حملة تفتيش عن الكاميرات التي ستنقل على الهواء أي معركة برية مقبلة ليشاهد العالم على الشاشات مباشرة كيف ستدمّر الألوية والفرق البرية لجيش الاحتلال.
– ضربتان على الرأس تتسبّبان بالعمى كما يُقال، وبنيامين نتنياهو قبل أن يفرك عينيه، سيكون قد أحسّ بالعمى. وهو لم يشكل حكومته الجديدة بعد، بينما السيد جاهز لحربه بالتفاصيل، فبنك الأهداف يستضيف أهدافاً جديدة، لم يعد مستودع الأمونيا أهمها، والتحضير للمعركة البرية، التي يشكل دخول الجليل الخطوة الأسهل فيها، ستكون على الهواء بكل تفاصيلها، حيث سيشاهد العالم عبر الشاشات كيف ستدمّر الألوية والفرق الإسرائيلية.
– يعرف قادة الكيان بمستوياتهم السياسية والعسكرية والأمنية، أن ميزة الحرب النفسية التي يتقنها ويبرع فيها السيد نصرالله، عن الحرب النفسية الإسرائيلية، هي كمية الصدق والجدية التي تختزنها، حيث لا مكان للتهويل، وحيث كل تهديد هو وعد ودين، يتحقق ويسدّد في أيام الحرب، وتجربة الإسرائيليين مع السيد نصرلله، تقول إن ما يتبلغونه عبر التهديدات يبقى أقل من نصف ما ينتظرهم مع المفاجآت، التي تتكفّل بحسم مصير الحرب في أيامها الأولى، ولو استمرت لأسابيع، ولا يزال الإسرائيليون يتذوّقون مرارة تدمير بارجتهم «ساعر» على الهواء، الذي وعدهم السيد هذه المرة بأنه سيكون شاملاً لميادين تدمير ألويتهم وفرقهم البرية.
– المعلوم والمعلن أقل من نصف المخفيّ، وما خفي كان أعظم. شعار يعرف قادة الاحتلال حاجتهم للتزود بحكمته في قراءتهم لما أعدّ لهم سيد المقاومة، وقد بات عليهم بعد أن سمعوا ما سمعوه، العودة لسنتين على الأقل من المراجعة والتحضيرات والمناورات، لنقل ما يخشون أن يكون ما قصده السيد بالهدف الأشد خطراً من مستودعات الأمونيا في حيفا، والذي يكفيه صاروخ واحد ليفعل ما لا يطيق قادة الاحتلال وقوعه، ومثله للتحسب للهزيمة الشنيعة التي سيراها العالم كله على الشاشات، والتي إن تعذّر التحسّب لوقوعها، فليكن التحسب لشيوعها، فينصرفون يحسبون ويحصون الكاميرات وأدوات النقل ومحاولة التعرف إلى أماكن توضيعها وأشكال إخفائها، وقد باتت بأهمية معرفة أماكن الصواريخ إن لم يكن أهم.
– في كل مرة يكشف هذا القائد العارف بأسرار الحرب، مهاراته، ومثابرة رفاق دربه، وكفاءات الشهداء الأحياء المستعدّين بلا كلل أو ملل أو وهن لبذل الأحمر القاني لحماية بلدهم، نشعر بالأسى لأن بعضاً من قادة هذا البلد لا زالوا يتجرأون على ارتكاب الخطيئة، ولم يتعظوا مما ارتكبوا من أخطاء.
– «جرعة ذو الفقار» فخر الصناعة اللبنانية سيتذوّقها جيش الاحتلال وقادته إن ارتكبوا الحماقة، لأنهم لا زالوا رغم الخيبات السابقة يراهنون على أقوال وأفعال من يرتكبون الخطيئة من اللبنانيين.

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Friday, April 19, 2019

ISRAEL’S MAGIC LAMP: IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE


This video is based on an analysis released by South Front on On June 15, 2018: “Israel’s Iron Dome ABM System. Threats, Peculiarities and Development Prospects
Since its inception, Israel has faced difficult political and military challenges. It defines the operational space in which IDF exists, the nature of development of its armed forces, and of individual weapons systems it uses.
The key objective and permanent factors include:
  • Israel’s geography, with the 470km-long country being no more than 135km wide.
  • Hostile environment, including unresolved territorial disputes with neighbors and the Palestinian problem.
  • Close proximity to borders of major cities and critical infrastructure.
At the same time, Israel did not treat its adversaries’ ability to use rockets as a priority for a long time, therefore establishing a comprehensive anti-ballistic missile system was not among its priorities either. The situation changed after the 1991 Gulf War, when Iraq struck Israeli cities using improved Soviet R-17 (NATO classification SS-1b Scud-B) ballistic missiles. At that time, US Patriot PAC-2 ABM systems were used to protect Israeli cities, however, they demonstrated their ineffectiveness. Therefore a decision was made to push the development of the Arrow and Arrow-2 ABM system jointly with the US, with the first systems deployed in March 2000.
The Arrow-2 system was intended to defeat attacks using ballistic missiles with ranges up to 3,000km. However, Hezbollah and Hamas were expanding their use of short-range rocket artillery. The Second Lebanon War of 2006 showed Israel to be vulnerable against such weapons. In that conflict, Hezbollah used a wide range of 107mm, 102mm, 220mm, 240mm, and 302mm rockets of Soviet, Chinese, Syrian, and Iranian manufacture with ranges between 6 and 210km, such as the Fajr-3, Zelzal, Nazeat, and others. Between July 13 and August 13, Israel was the target of 4228 rockets which caused 53 civilian fatalities, 250 wounded, and 2000 cases of light injuries, in addition to considerable damage to infrastructure and housing.
Following this war, Israel’s leaders decided it was necessary to establish a tactical ABM system, and in February 2007 the decision to develop Iron Dome was made, with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems already working on it at that time. Its deployment in Israel began in 2011.
According to Rafael data, Iron Dome is a dual-purpose system: intercepting rockets, shells, and mortar bombs (counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar, or C-RAM), and also very short range air defense (VSHORAD).
Iron Dome’s main mission, according to a Rafael brochure, is protecting civilians in cities, strategic facilities, and infrastructure, and also reducing collateral damage. It may also be used to protect troop convoys and ships. The system can operate around the clock, in any weather and climate.
Iron Dome is intended to rapidly detect, identify, and intercept asymmetrical means of attack, such as:
  • short range rockets (4-70km)
  • mortar bombs
  • artillery shells.
Moreover, when used as a SAM, Iron Dome can engage aerial target, including aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, PGMs.
Iron Dome includes the following components:
  • EL/M-2084 truck-mounted multirole radar.
  • Fire control system.
  • Three truck-towed launchers, each with 20 Tamir interceptor rockets.
A single system is capable of protecting an area of 150 km2.
The Tamir missile is equipped with a homing sensor under a metallic ballistic cone to protect it against high temperatures. The cone is ejected several seconds prior to the intercept using the proximity-fused warhead.
Tests of the naval version of Iron Dome concluded in November 2017. There are plans to install it on Sa’ar-5 corvettes and to protect drilling platforms in coastal areas.
One of Iron Dome’s specifics is its ability to identify priority targets, and to intercept only those which pose a threat to protected sites. This ability is provided by the high-tech fire control system integrated with the EL/M 2084 radar.
If the incoming projectile is predicted to fall in uninhabited areas, launch commands are not issued in order to reduce operational expenses since each intercept costs several tens of thousands of dollars.
Intercepts are carried out by Tamir rockets which detonate in close proximity to the intercepted objects. The intercept takes place at the peak of target trajectory to reduce contamination should the warhead carry chemical or biological agents.
The United States have been active in financing the development, production, and servicing of Iron Dome since 2011. The program’s overall cost has been estimated at approximately $4.5 billion, with the US contribution being over $1.5 billion. The US budget for 2018 includes $92 million to finance Iron Dome.
US participation in Iron Dome is motivated by the need to support ABM development by its main ally in the region, and creating a technological base for own future ABM systems. The main US Iron Dome partner has been Raytheon, with some 55% of its components that are financed by the US are made by US contractors, chiefly Raytheon.
Each Iron Dome battery costs about $50 million, while each Tamir rocket is estimated at $20-100 thousand. Operating costs is difficult to estimate.
Iron Dome is being supplied to Canada, Azerbaijan, India, and several other countries. Czech Republic will receive them in the near future. The total volume of sales has reached $2 billion. Israel declared its intent to export the system many times. Interested parties have included South Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, United States which have voiced interest in buying the system to protect own bases in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iron Dome effectiveness is subject of considerable debate among the expert community. Rafael has touted the system as highly effective, with Israel’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) supporting that assessment.
Effectiveness assessments are mainly based on the Second Lebanon War and two IDF operations in Gaza: Pillar of Cloud (2012) and Protective Edge (2014).
Thus according to the IDF, in 8 days of Pillar of Cloud Hamas launched 1506 rockets at Israel, of which 421 were intercepted, 875 fell in unpopulated areas, 58 in populated areas, 6 were killed, 240 were wounded. IDF claims Iron Dome effectiveness was 84%.
However, this data is doubted by US and Israeli experts. First of all, given IDF information on launched and intercepted rockets, system effectiveness should be about 87.9%(421 + 58=479=100%; 421/479*100=87,9%). The operational cost of Iron Dome (including Tamir interceptor rockets) was $25-30 million.
Secondly, according to Israeli police southern district data, some 109 rockets fell in populated areas, not 58. There is also no data on the reasons most of the rockets launched against Israel missed. This is likely due to the low quality of rockets used by Palestinians.
IDF claims that during Protective Edge, Palestinians launched 4500 rockets of which 692 were intercepted [during 50 days]. No additional data was provided, and the high indicated effectiveness (90%) also causes doubts due to the lack of IDF transparency. It’s clear that Iron Dome is not cost-effective. Hamas and Hezbollah rockets cost between $300 (Grad) and $800 (Qassam). When assessing cost-effectiveness, IDF should consider insurance payments for damaged property. Comparing this data for the three above-mentioned operations has led experts to conclude that per-rocket damage has been reduced from $29,500 in 2006, to $9,000 in 2012, and $5,100 in 2014.
Israel's Magic Lamp: Iron Dome Missile Defense
However, some US experts doubt the objectivity of official Israeli data and believe that intercept probability is about 5%. According to Michael Anderson, an expert with the Brock University, reduction in rocket effectiveness since the 2nd Lebanon War was due not only to Iron Dome, but also to a series of other measures, including early warning and bomb shelter improvements. Moreover, Gaza and 2nd Lebanon War can hardly be compared, in part because of the differences in population density between southern and northern Israel. Accurate assessments are also made difficult by absence of sufficient verifiably accurate information, much of which remains classified.
Israel is continuing Iron Dome purchases. It’s also clear Hezbollah, Hamas, and their allies will seek to improve own offensive weapons to make them more effective at overcoming Iron Dome, with two parallel approaches, tactical and technical.
From the technical point of view, the attacker will seek to improve munitions accuracy. If guided artillery shells are used, Iron Dome effectiveness would be much lower. According to IDF air defense commander Zwick Haimovich, Hezbollah and Hamas will be able to strike Israel using cruise missiles. Even when these improved systems are intercepted, they would increase Israel’s expenditures on air defenses because more interceptor rockets would be needed.
Tactically, the obvious response is placing offensive weapons in direct proximity of targets, given that Iron Dome’s minimum effective range is 4km. Even today Hezbollah can strike 75% of Israel’s territory using systems it currently owns.
Iron Dome has only limited abilities to intercept several targets simultaneously. Therefore Israel’s opponents will seek to increase the density of its rocket volleys. Increasing the number of cheap weapons is the most likely course adversaries will adopt. According to some reports, Hezbollah has already increased the number of its rockets by several times, to more than 100 thousand.
Combining unguided and guided rockets would greatly increase the ability to overcome ABM defenses. Moreover, ABM systems would be degraded if faced by multiple adversaries operating from different directions. According to open source data, Iron Dome is quite sensitive and often reacts to false alarms, for example, from machine-gun bursts. This vulnerability is an obvious one to exploit. The psychological factor also matters. RAND analysts are correct to note that reducing casualties among Israeli civilians has a negative media effect against the backdrop of losses among Palestinians or Lebanese.
In the future, Iron Dome will likely be modernized to address existing problems and to adapt to developments in offensive means.Moreover, fire control and radar systems will be modernized as well. On the one hand, the system will be better able to detect launches and predict trajectories. On the other hand, it’s necessary to improve the ability to identify targets due to its propensity to react to false alarms. These efforts will be accompanied by the development of Iron Beam which is intended to defeat ultra-short range munitions. Israel has limited ability to improve ABM tactics, and include better coordination, where intelligence-gathering plays a big role.
Israel and its adversaries will continue improving their defensive and offensive systems, respectively. They will focus on modernization, improving quality and quantity, development of new weapons, and improving tactics. Hezbollah and Hamas will emphasize tactics changes in the use of their existing arsenals, combined with improving their rockets’ range and accuracy and expanding the variety of weapons systems used. Combining cheap and improved precise rockets in a single salvo will become a more frequent tactic.
Israel, in turn, will continue perfecting Iron Dome and Iron Beam with US assistance. But given the increased arsenals of its adversaries, Tel Aviv will place greater emphasis on its intelligence and special operations to detect and destroy rocket launchers in early stages of conflict. Israel will also be forced to recognize the importance of traditional civil defense and early warning, since Iron Dome may be forced to focus on defending military targets and critical infrastructure when faced with massed attacks. Here too, intelligence and diplomatic instruments will be used to prevent a coordinated attack by several adversaries. Effectiveness of this system in future conflicts will influence its export potential.