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Showing posts with label Sanctions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sanctions. Show all posts

Friday, November 2, 2018

اليمن بداية مسار التراجع السعودي



نوفمبر 2, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– كان لافتاً ما أدلى به وزير الدفاع الأميركي جيمس ماتيس حول صيغة لوقف الحرب في اليمن، فهو لم يوجه دعوة سياسية بل أعدّ روزنامة عملية حدّد لها سقفاً بثلاثين يوماً لوقف النار وبدء التفاوض السياسي، من دون أن يكلّف نفسه عناء زيارة الرياض والتشاور مع القيادة السعودية كشريك استراتيجي في المنطقة، وفقاً لوصف سابق لماتيس وللرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب. فكلام ماتيس الأقرب للأمر العسكري موجّه لكل من السعودية والإمارات، بوقف الحرب. والباقي دعوة ومطالب للقيادة اليمنية ولأنصار الله خصوصاً بقبول مقايضة وقف العمليات العسكرية السعودية والإماراتية، مقابل وقف قصف الصواريخ على المناطق السعودية. وهي دعوة لقيت رداً واضحاً من أنصار الله بربط كل بحث بوقف الحرب بأن يكون شاملاً وفي المقدمة يأتي فك الحصار.

– التوازن الجديد في اليمن بات واضحاً بعد الموقف الأميركي، وهو يمنح أنصار الله الموقع المقرر بالتوازي مع واشنطن التي أعلنت وضع يدها على قرار السعودية والإمارات ومَنْ معهما من اليمنيين. وواضح أن مسقط ستدير التفاوض بين الفريقين الأميركي واليمني، والواضح أيضاً أن واشنطن تقوم بذلك بعدما فرضت ضريبة التطبيع على مسقط لقاء جائزة الدور التفاوضي، لكنها تدرك بمعزل عن كون علاقة أنصار الله بإيران ليست علاقة تبعية، أن المعادلات الجيوسياسية في المنطقة جعلت من حرب السعودية والإمارات في اليمن مدخلاً لامتلاك عناصر تفوّق بوجه إيران في البحار واليابسة والممرات والمضائق المائية، وأن الحديث الأميركي عن الحاجة للسعودية في المواجهة مع إيران لا تجد لها ترجمة بمثل ما تقدّمه الحرب على اليمن، ووقف الحرب بقرار أميركي سيجد نفسه ملزماً بالتفاعل مع المطالب والشروط اليمنية بفك الحصار، تعني إحالة الدور السعودي رسمياً إلى التقاعد، خصوصاً في ما تسميه واشنطن بالمواجهة مع إيران.

– عملياً، لا يغيب عن بال واشنطن، ومن دون تنسيق تفاوضي بين أنصار الله وإيران، أن شروط وقف الحرب لن تتضمّن نزع الصواريخ البالستية من أيدي أنصار الله، وأن وهم الإشراف الدولي عليها إعلامي، وأن الدعوة لإدارة ذاتية مؤقتة للمناطق اليمنية لن يقبله أنصار الله، وأن الطريق ستكون مفتوحة نحو حكومة مؤقتة تمهّد لانتخابات، وأن مسار الوضع في اليمن لن يكون مغايراً لمصير الوضع في سورية، حيث خسارة أميركا للحرب على الدولة السورية المستقلة، سيكون كافياً لإعلان انتصار إيران. فما يهمّ إيران وفقاً لما تكتب الصحف الأميركية وتقول مراكز الدراسات التي تعتمدها الإدارة الأميركية في رسم سياساتها، هو أن يكون على حدود فلسطين دولة سورية مقاتلة قادرة ومستقلة، وأن يكون على مياه الخليج والبحر الأحمر دولة يمنية مؤمنة بالاستقلال الوطني، لا تضعها واشنطن تحت إبطها مباشرة أو بالواسطة السعودية. وهذا ما تدرك واشنطن أنه حاصل بمجرد وقف الحرب التي جاءت لمنع حصوله.

– يثير مسار العقوبات الأميركية وتزامنها مع ما يشكل عملياً رسالة انفتاح يمنية هامة على المصالح الإيرانية، وبوابة تفاوض تفتح بواسطة مسقط، التساؤل عن مدى قناعة واشنطن بالذهاب إلى المواجهة مع إيران، ودرجة الثقة بالعقوبات لتطويع إيران، بعدما صارت مجرد ضرورة تفاوضية، حيث حجر الرحى في المواجهة الذي تشكله السعودية يجري إخراجه من الحلبة مضرّجاً بجراحاته؟

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Thursday, November 1, 2018

هندسة أميركية جديدة لشرق الفرات ـ لماذا؟


أكتوبر 31, 2018

د. وفيق إبراهيم

ست سنوات لم تكن كافية للقضاء على منظمة داعش الإرهابية شرق الفرات… بيانات التحالف الدولي بقيادة الأميركيين تؤكد أنه بصدد القضاء على الإرهاب في الشرق والشمال ومعظم أنحاء سورية. وإنّ تراجعه ليس إلا ثمرة أعمالها الجوية والميدانية.

ويتّضح أنّ الدولة السورية بالتنسيق مع الغارات الجوية الروسية 220 غارة منذ ثلاث سنوات وحزب الله والمستشارين الإيرانيين هم الذين قضوا على داعش ومثيلاتها في كامل غرب سورية من الحدود الجنوبية حتى الشمال والشمال الغربي والوسط. فيما لا يزال هذا الإرهاب موجوداً في مواقع في شرق الفرات وحتى ضواحي مدينة حلب.

ما يدفع إلى التساؤل حول صدقية القوات الأميركية في محاربة داعش، وهل البؤر التي يتموضع فيها داعش داخل قاعدة التنف التي يحتلها الأميركيون عند نقطة سورية تربطها بالأردن والعراق.

ولأنّ هذا الانتشار الإرهابي لا يكفي ما يريده الأميركيون كما يبدو، فزعم هؤلاء أنّ سوء الأحوال الجوية في منطقة دير الزور شرق الفرات أتاح لألفي مسلح إرهابي من احتلال الأرياف في مناطق هجين وياغور والسوسة على حساب تراجع قوات سورية الديمقراطية الكردية التي سقط منها مئات القتلى والجرحى وسط حيادية كاملة للتحالف الأميركي… وكأنه لا يرى شيئاً على الرغم من أنّ هذه المعارك تطلبت أياماً طويلة من الاستعداد والتقدّم والهجوم وسط مراقبة دقيقة من الأقمار الاصطناعية الأميركية التي تراقب حتى حركة النبات وصغار الحيوان والحشرات، فكيف بالآليات والمدافع والبشر؟ وما هي الأسباب التي تفرض على القوات الأميركية السماح لداعش بالاقتراب من الحدود السورية العراقية؟

إنها تساؤلات بريئة لمحاولات أميركية ماكرة لها أهداف بعيدة.

في المنطلق، يمكن تأكيد ما يشبه الإجماع أنّ «قسد» الكردية ليست إلا مشروعاً أميركياً يتلاعب بالأحاسيس الوطنية للكرد على جاري عادة المستعمرين.

فاعتقد الكرد أنهم يلبّون بالضرورة حاجة أميركية، إنما من خلال تحقيق مشروعهم بدولة مستقلة لهم في شرق الفرات وشماله، موهمين أنفسهم بإمكانية إنجاز الهدفين معاً. فاستثاروا بذلك غضبين: الأتراك والدولة السورية… لجهة أنقرة فإنّ الكرد وسواس تاريخي كبير لهم لأنهم يشكلون 26 في المئة من سكان تركيا ولديهم مناطقهم المستقلة والجبلية الشديدة الوعورة شرق البلاد.

للتوضيح أكثر فإنّ معظم أكراد سورية هم تركيو الأصل طردهم أتاتورك في 1920 وهجّرهم إلى سورية.

ويصادف أنّ خطوط الاتصال الجغرافي تكاد تكون مفتوحة بين الأكراد في تركيا وسورية والعراق وإيران.. لكن مشكلتهم أنهم لا يملكون سواحل بحرية أو خطوط طيران متصلة مع الخارج، وكما أنّ خطوطهم البرية مقطوعة من العراق وإيران وسورية وتركيا.

لكن الأميركيين أوهموهم باحتمال نجاح كانتون لهم شرق الفرات يسيطر على حقول الغاز والنفط الوفيرة في شرق الفرات. على أن تتولى نقل منتجاتها شركات أميركية تستطيع الاستفادة من سواحل تركيا.

مع عودة كتلة كبيرة من داعش إلى المناطق الشرقية المطلة على حدود العراق ـ يمكن الجزم أنّ الصمت الأميركي عليه ليس بريئاً، بقدر ما يندرج في إطار خطة جديدة تلبّي مستجدات طرأت على حاجات واشنطن في سورية.

الكمين الأميركي في إدلب حيث نجح الضغط الأميركي ـ الأوروبي بإرجاء تحريرها حتى نهاية الوساطات التركية، علماً أنّ هذه المنطقة تسيطر عليها جبهة النصرة وحليفاتها من المنظمات المصنفة إرهابية.

ولأنّ واشنطن تعتبر تحرير إدلب مسألة وقت، سرعان ما يستدير بعدها السوريون والروس وحزب الله والإيرانيون نحو شرق الفرات، فكان أن بدأ الأميركيون بفبركة مزاعم بأنهم يقاتلون الإرهاب في تلك المنطقة.. ما يتطلّب بقاءهم حتى القضاء عليه.. وبما أنّ هذا الإرهاب لم يعد لديه ما يكفي من مناطق خاصة به.. ارتؤي توسيع انتشاره على حساب قسد الكردية.. وبشكل يخدم هدفين: تبرير بقاء الأميركيين في شرق الفرات بالذريعة الإرهابية ووضع داعش ومثيلاتها أمام قوات الحشد الشعبي المنتشرة على حدود العراق مع شرق سورية.. هذا الحشد الذي استشعر منذ شهر تقريباً بمحاولات أميركية لقطع الحدود بين البلدين ومنع أيّ تنسيق بينهما عسكرياً واقتصادياً وسياسياً.

هل تثير هذه الهندسة الأميركية غضب الكرد؟

يملك الأميركيون من الوسائل الكثيرة لإقناع «قسد»، فقد يقنعونها بأنهم يريدون إبعادها عن الصدام مع الجيش العراقي، ومحاولة الحفاظ عليها من إصرار الدولة السورية على رفض الكانتون الكردي.. وبواسطة داعش تصبح الدولة السورية مضطرة إلى تركيز اهتمامها على الإرهاب وتترك الكرد إلى مراحل مقبلة.. وهذه هي الأهداف التي تريدها واشنطن وفي مطلعها إطالة الأزمة السورية.. لأسباب جيوبوليتيكية صرفة، تتعلق بصراعهم الإقليمي مع الروس.

فهؤلاء صاعدون في سياسات الإقليم يبيعون سلاحهم المتقدّم لمصر والهند وقطر والسعودية وسورية وتركيا وأميركا الجنوبية وجنوب شرق آسيا.. وهذا السلاح يحتاج إلى صيانة لمدة سنوات، تربط عادة بين البائع والشاري بالاقتصاد والسياسة.

لذلك فإنّ الإمبراطورية الأميركية المتراجعة في لبنان وسورية والعراق واليمن والعاجزة عن تحطيم إيران، تشعر أنّ رحيلها عن شرق الفرات يعني سيادة الدولة السورية على كامل أراضيها.. وهذا تفسير واحد وهو أنّ الاستقرار السوري يُمهِّد لروسيا منصة انطلاق قوية نحو الإقليم من العراق إلى اليمن ومصر. وهذا ما يتحاشاه البيت الأبيض.

وهناك في الأفق البعيد حركة أميركية لجذب الأتراك.. فسيطرة داعش على قسم من جغرافية «قسد».. يثير فرح الأتراك وتأييدهم.. خصوصاً أنّ الرئيس أردوغان قال منذ أيام عدة بأنّ قواته ذاهبة في الأيام المقبلة لمحاربة الكرد شرقي سورية. فهل هذه مصادفة.. يهاجم الإرهابيون قسد في الموعد نفسه! وتقصف طائرات تركية مواقع للكرد عند حدود شرق سورية مع شماله.

إنها الهندسة الأميركية التي لا تعمل إلا لمصلحة الجيوبوليتيك الأميركي الكوني الذي يستعمل الكرد والعشائر والمعارضة والإرهاب والدور التركي في سبيل مصالحه العليا.

انظروا إلى حركة التاريخ حتى تتبيّنوا كم مرّة باعت الدول الكبرى الثورة العربية الكبرى والمحاولات الكردية ومعظم الحركات التاريخية مقابل حفنة من البترول والاقتصاد والجغرافيا.

لكن شرق الفرات يرتبط أيضاً بهندسة سورية، روسية، إيرانية، لن تتأخر طويلاً في مباشرة عمليات تحريره وهي التي تؤدّي فعلياً إلى السيادة السورية الكاملة وبدء الروس بتحقيق الجيوبوليتيك الخاص بهم، ونجاح إيران في الخروج من الحصار المفروض عليها منذ ثلاثة عقود ونيّف.

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The US Cyber Command has launched an offensive against Russia by Ruslan Ostashko

Via The Saker

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Sanctions against Social Ethics


The practice of social responsibility needs for all to be proactive, one way or another, in bringing equality for fellow community members. It is when the more able member of society assists the less fortunate for the purpose of maintaining a general social equilibrium of education and wealth. Everyone should be entitled to an equal opportunity to realize his or her ambitions and full potential; the tools that lead to improving one’s situation are availed by others knowing that the betterment of the individual member yields a healthier society for all.
Protecting the rights of every person is a main deterrent against the decline of moral standards which, in its turn and in so many cases, is a direct result of social frustration. Hence, the display of a sound sense of social responsibility by all would ultimately serve in eliminating, to a great degree, many factors that lead to corruption – a healthier social setup evolves.
This is a part of the teachings of Islam; justice has to be prioritized if we are to live in the comfort of safety. And, the application of justice goes beyond the classical judicial system. Islam dictates the founding of courts manned by wise and highly educated judges; it doesn’t stop there though. It also dictates that justice is practiced to a person’s best ability with family, neighbors, colleagues, friends, and anyone who is weaker. Justice is a part of social responsibility in Islam.
When the word “Hezbollah” is mentioned anywhere, the resistance is the first thing that comes to the mind of the majority of people. The image of a heroic patriot walking up a hill on a cold rainy night with his brothers, leaving the warmth of his family to ensure that his home and the homes of his neighbors are protected against the “Israeli” saboteur.
These brave men of the Lebanese resistance have relied, mostly, on simple weapons during the years extending from 1982 – nothing worth millions of dollars like tanks or fighter jets. They showed the world that a successful resistance relies more on the hearts of the people than on the class of armament. They showed that volunteers achieve more victories than professional highly paid soldiers and mercenaries.
The United States is talking about further sanctions against Hezbollah. They, allegedly, impose sanctions for the “noble” purpose of preventing a government or an organization from acquiring weapons. Knowing that the defense strategy of the resistance does not depend on tactical items that need great expenditures, it can be clearly seen that whatever the magnitude of the sanctions is, it will not affect the military aspect. The defense combat gear comprises rifles that are decades- old and even older rocket-propelled grenades. The maximum in cost might be night vision binoculars but those can be purchased over the counter globally under the commercial category of civilian and recreational gadgets.
As for some more sophisticated weapons like modern compact anti-tank and aircraft arms, plenty has been left behind in Iraq and Syria and in pristine condition by the dozen or more terrorist factions armed to the teeth with compliments of “Israel” and other terror-supporting countries. Stockpiles upon stockpiles have been seized.
So, what are the sanctions targeting?
One might argue that affecting the overall financial situation of Hezbollah would influence the salaries of its members negatively, resulting in their eventual dismay from a worsening personal financial situation leading to desertion. That would have been the case if they were fighting for financial gain. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of the men of Hezbollah are volunteers and they avail themselves for purely patriotic reasons; as poetic as it sounds, the truth is that their payment is the honor of fighting for their country.
As for those who serve on a full-time basis, their salaries are covered with donations from local businesses which are sufficient. At this point, it is worthy of mentioning that the salary of the highest paygrade in Hezbollah is that of the Secretary-General. The amount is USD 1,400.
Again. What are the sanctions targeting?
The answer is clear. The sanctions are against the fabric of the society that contains Hezbollah. They are against Social responsibility and justice. They target civil establishments linked to the general population falling directly and indirectly under the geographical region where Hezbollah and Muslims exist. These establishments include orphanages, educational institutions for the financially underprivileged, non-profit medical centers, charities, women empowerment centers, vocational training institutes for young adults with special needs, and more.
The American administration that still gives billions of dollars in the form of unconditional annual aid to “Israel” for the purpose of building more illegal settlements on Palestinian raped land and arming its terrorist army along with Daesh [the Arabic acronym for terrorist ‘ISIS/ISIL’ group] mercenaries wants to close down Lebanese charities that take care of society.
They aim to financially suffocate civilian institutions that direct the social compass towards higher human values. The concept of “education and justice for all” is the enemy in the scope of American sanctions. The recent move against the UNRWA is sufficient proof of that.
Contemptible acts like targeting the livelihoods and the future of the youth and the needy can only be described as animosity towards humanity. There’s no doubt that certain aspects will suffer here and there. Still, one must keep in mind that this is a social set up built by the people who excel in the culture of resilience and creativity. History has it written in its pages: The Lebanese will always prevail. How can they not when they have such leaders as Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in their ranks.
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The reinstatement of North Korea: What effects on the ‘story’ of socialism?

October 25, 2018
by Ramin Mazaheri for The Saker BlogThe reinstatement of North Korea: What effects on the ‘story’ of socialism?
It seems unlikely – as it defies 73 years of ongoing aggression, warfare, the near-warfare of constant tap dancing on the border, starvation-creating sanctions, false promises, broken promises, racist caricaturing, hysterical knee-jerk anti-socialism, and more besides – but what if Washington finally allows North Korea to reintegrate into the multinational world?
North Korea has been so politically oppressed from without that they are less integrated into global affairs, regional affairs, and even local & national affairs (their country was forcibly divided, after all) than any nation. They are even less integrated than the other few nations which have sustained modern (and thus socialist-inspired) popular revolutions, such as Cuba, Iran, Eritrea, mighty China and their fighting Vietnamese comrades.
We are told that we don’t really know anything about North Korea! We are also told to believe nothing from Pyongyang, and that the “Hermit Kingdom” is the most inscrutable of all those very-inscrutable East Asians. But I reported from Seoul and the DMZ border in 2013 and learned some interesting things (5 of them are here).
If I had to give the two most important ideas, they would be: no People have lived with more meddling exterior menaces since the year 1945 -North Koreans are bordered by and/or threatened by the US, South Korea, Russia, China and Japan); and the second point would be that the reunification of an $8 trillion mineral-richwell-educated(darn those socialist countries with their not-for-profit education programs) North Korea with South Korea would almost IMMEDIATELY create the world’s 5th-largest economy, trailing only the US, China, Japan and Germany. I hold these truths to be self-evident, and move on to the point of this article….
Let’s conjecture that Korea is still not allowed to reunite but that North Korea is allowed a global reinstatement on the level of China and Vietnam, leapfrogging poor Cuba and lonely Iran (but who is lonely when they have God?): How would that affect socialism on a global-historical scale?
What do I mean by that? I mean: socialism is a historical-political movement which covers 200 years, which is nearly as faith-based as Islam or Christendom, and which is nearly as economically influential as the era of industrialisation (an era which has lasted 250 years because many colonized countries have never even finished the First Industrial Revolution) and reinstatement for North Korea means a North Korean victory…and a victory for North Korea HAS TO impact the “narrative of socialism”, no?
Right now the narrative since 1992 is that “History is over”, per Francis Fukuyama, and capitalism has defeated socialism until the end of time…except that Fukuyama himself just backtracked on that with a recent interview“At this juncture, it seems to me that certain things Karl Marx said are turning out to be true.” Ah, really Frank? By “juncture” you mean roughly 1848, right?
It’s 2018 and we’re talking North Korean reintegration, old F.F. is having doubts and Donald Trump is in the White House – what is the world coming to?!
Trump, God bless his Nobel Peace Prize-deserving soul (hey, Obama re-set the bar, right?) seems willing to do what the smartphone-loving world demands: end the Cold War on North Korea…in order to start exploiting the Jongju superdeposit, the world’s largest rare earth metals cache, and which may contain double the world’s known rare earth element resources. Money talks with capitalists, not ideology/morality/history….
So what does it mean for socialism if North Korea is allowed to allow people in?
Here’s what I’m picturing: Much like Iran, foreigners come visit and realize: this place is far more modern and put together than often ignorantly assumed. After all, North Korea seems to have the ideological cohesion of Cuba combined with a high-tech skillset & wealth volume closer to Iran (Cuba’s “wealth volume” is limited by population size, containing only sugar and nickel, and by being an island (blockade-busting is thus harder)). With reinstatement the world will slowly realize and accept that North Korea is indeed a socialist success – just like China and Vietnam. Unlike Iran, there is no Islamophobia for the Christian-Atheist West to use as a deflection.
Reinstatement means Asians run socialism like Westerners run capitalism
A North Korean victory means we are talking about the four biggest socialist success stories, certainly from an economic standpoint, being from Asia.
Concurrently, European socialism is not even close to being revived: it’s hard to shock back into life someone who has drunk hemlock (events of 1989-1991) and also asked to be shot (the Eurozone & European Union). Asia turns to its left, sees Iran, mumbles (but not disapprovingly), stands on its tiptoes and shakes its head while discussing “revisionism” and “the lack of a Cultural Revolution”.
Here is the fundamental question at the heart of this article: The West writes the history of socialism because they are the “victors” and history is written by the victors.
The West is the “victor” in every way possible, of course – one can never question that. They are the “victors” in what “socialism” is, means and should be…which is paradoxical, because they have undoubtedly always been the “victors” in capitalism-imperialism and are the current victors in neo-imperialism.
Western paradoxes are there only to be ignored, so I’ll continue: They are also the “victors” in which rights are “human” and which are not; they are the “victors” in what is “freedom” and what is not; they are the “victors” in which economics are successful and which are not. All of these are absolutely without a defensible factual foundation – especially the more-mathematical last one – but I contend that the West believes, and much of the rest of the world is also persuaded, that the West are the “victors” in achieving the greatest amount of “socialist victory”. (For the record, I do not believe nor am persuaded by any of these claims.)
Again, socialism is a movement which is so long and so enduring that it forces us to extend our viewpoint: If North Korea is added to the list of socialist victories…what does and what should the world do?
Save a few Latin American countries, only one of which is stable (Cuba); save a few African countries, only two of which are stable (Algeria, Eritrea); it must be admitted that Asian socialism is currently victorious in the “global-regional competition”.
Therefore, I insist an integration of North Korea allows me to declare the “end of history”: Asian socialism is the only acceptable model, and all must follow Asia henceforth.
LOL, but such a declaration is not “socialism” at all because socialism (like Islam) cannot be forced: it would then cease to be democratic, and socialism is the most class- and citizen-inclusive sociopolitical model ever created in human history. This type of a declaration can only be made by capitalists, who impose by force the ideas of one person (or of an oligarchical few).
Obviously, the actual ramifications of a North Korean success on the “narrative of socialism” is multi-faceted, complicated and boring to many, but the ramifications are real, impactful, undeniable and unavoidable.
What do Western socialists ‘learn’ from a North Korean success?
Is the West capable of learning from a North Korean success?
Past behaviour is the best indicator of future behaviour, so my answer is “no”: The West will make it a point to remain the “victors” (in their view) and thus learn nothing from North Korea’s success, just as they have learned nothing from the successes of China, Iran, Cuba, etc.
The West will try to co-opt North Korean success by the same lie – that North Korea is an anti-democratic mullah-ocracy…no wait, a one-family dictatorship like Cuba – that works better.
They will deny the existence of North Korea’s undeniably socialist rules, laws, history and martyrs. They will also deny the words and experiences of actual North Koreans because the Western “victors” can and should speak for everyone: The Western tongue is the “one, true” tongue.
Above all they will assert – on the Western left and the Western right – that North Korea never was socialist at all, or that it could possibly be “socialist” now. Sadly, Western socialists often do the work of the imperialist-capitalists for them; they, paradoxically are “socialists” despite espousing the exact same (nonsensical, uninformed, self-referencing, self-centered, self-interested) views on North Korea in 2018 as right-wingers.
But for the true socialists living in the Western countries – and I am talking about perhaps as many as 14 people – a North Korean success should be applauded loudly. After all – no other socialist nation has endured more to win sovereignty, freedom and their own form of socialism. Of course, this public applauding will make us even more socially-isolated in Western society to the point where we will have even greater trouble finding that elusive 15th comrade….
It’s undeniable, at least to me, that socialism can be divided into 3 distinct eras: West European dominance (Marx, Paris Commune), East European/Slavic dominance (USSR, Eastern Bloc) and Asian dominance (China, Vietnam, Iran…North Korea?). A North Korean integration means that we are STILL living in this mostly-unappreciated 3rd historical era of Asian dominance in socialist thought and practice. Reinstatement also implies that the long-awaited “Latin American dominance era”, to be led by Cuba, remains unmaterialized (due to the continued domination of the “Monroe Doctrine era”).
Of course, most Western leftists don’t want to hear any analysis which relegates the West to 2nd fiddle, as they are still the “victors”…and they are: in living in a tired, nostalgic, decidedly un-revolutionary fashion.
Trump has certainly said and done crazy things but the re-integration of North Korea follows as much capitalist logic as the re-integration of China (consumer demand, loans/bond buying, formerly low- but now mid-cost labor (providing mid-cost labor is the function Eastern Europe currently serves for the German neo-imperialism of the Eurozone)) and Vietnam (low-cost labor):
Without access to North Korea’s rare earth metals China will have perhaps as great a chokepoint on the modern global economy as any OPEC nation save Arabia (which I refuse to call “Saudi”, as only Western governments believe/want the house of Saud to be synonymous with the People of Arabia). Furthermore, due to their educational advancements, North Korea can obviously serve the same function for South Korea as East Germany did for West Germany upon their reunification: cheap but smart labor.
(Iran might have oil instead of rare earth metals, but how can they serve this capitalist labor function when they are (due to imperialist throttling) the most populous, most advanced economy in the Middle East? Even if a counter-revolution happened in Iran, who would make them their mid-cost labor hub – Russia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt? None of those will work. This is why toppling Iran (combined with their anti-imperialist & anti-Zionist stances) is Washington’s continued project, in contrast to this floated reinstatement of North Korea. The US, being capitalist, runs on lobbies and money – somebody is obviously greasing the policy wheels (exercising their “free speech”) in favor of Pyongyang, and to hell with Korean War veterans groups or anyone else.
But that last is a bold statement – North Korean reinstatement…seriously? Sounds great – Koreans are certainly all for that, and they deserve Korean socialism…or at least to be #5 instead of pawns in a four-way game.
What does “socialism do” if North Korea becomes a success story – acknowledge it or ignore it? It seems like the answer depends on what part of the world you live in, but that is certainly a response which is “bad socialism”.
Socialism’s recent past and its present remains centered in the East, but socialism’s future remains open to anyone with common sense, a disposition for equality, and the courage to speak out.
Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for PressTV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. His work has appeared in various journals, magazines and websites, as well as on radio and television. He can be reached on Facebook.

Who profits from the end of the mid-range nuclear treaty?

October 26, 2018
Who profits from the end of the mid-range nuclear treaty?
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with The Asia Times by special agreement with the author)

The US move to shelve the Intermediate-range Nuclear-Forces treaty could accelerate the demise of the whole post-WWII Western alliance, and herald a bad remix of the 1930s

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its Doomsday Clock to only 2 minutes to midnight. It might be tempting to turn this into a mere squabble about arrows and olives if this wasn’t such a terrifying scenario.
US president Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, secretary-general of the USSR, signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 1987.
The Arms Control Association was extremely pleased. “The treaty marked the first time the superpowers had agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals, eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and utilize extensive on-site inspections for verification.”
Three decades later, the Trump administration wants to unilaterally pull out of the INF Treaty.
Earlier this week President Trump sent his national security adviser John Bolton to officially break the news to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
As they were discussing extremely serious issues such as implications of a dissolving INF Treaty, the perpetuation of anti-Russia sanctions, the risk of not extending a new START Treaty and the deployment, in Putin’s words, of “some elements of the missile shield in outer space”, the Russian President got into, well, arrows and olives:
“As I recall, there is a bald eagle pictured on the US coat of arms: it holds 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other as a symbol of peaceful policy: a branch with 13 olives. My question: has your eagle already eaten all the olives leaving only the arrows?”
Bolton’s response: “I didn’t bring any olives.”

A ‘new strategic reality’?

By now it’s clear the Trump administration’s rationale for pulling out of the INF Treaty is due, in Bolton’s words, to “a new strategic reality”. The INF is being dismissed as a “bilateral treaty in a multipolar ballistic missile world”, which does not take into consideration the missile capabilities of China, Iran and North Korea.
But there is a slight problem. The INF Treaty limits missiles with a range from 500 km to 5,000 km. China, Iran and North Korea simply cannot pose a “threat” to the United States by deploying such missiles. The INF is all about the European theater of war.
So, it’s no wonder the reaction in Brussels and major European capitals has been of barely disguised horror.
EU diplomats have told Asia Times the US decision was a “shock”, and “the last straw for the EU as it jeopardizes our very existence, subjecting us to nuclear destruction by short-range missiles”, which would never be able to reach the US heartland.
The “China” reason – that Russia is selling Beijing advanced missile technology – simply does not cut it in Europe, as the absolute priority is European security. EU diplomats are establishing a parallel to the possibility – which was more than real last year – that Washington could nuclear-bomb North Korea unilaterally. South Korea and Japan, in that case, would be nuclear “collateral damage”. The same might happen to Europe in the event of a US-Russia nuclear shoot-out.
It goes without saying that shelving the INF could even accelerate the demise of the whole post-WWII Western alliance, heralding a remix of the 1930s with a vengeance.

And the clock keeps ticking

Reports that should be critically examined in detail assert that US superiority over China’s military power is rapidly shrinking. Yet China is not much of a military technology powerhouse compared to Russia and its state of the art hypersonic missiles.
NATO may be relatively strong on the missile front – but it still wouldn’t be able to compete with Russia in a potential battle in Europe.
The supreme danger, in Doomsday Clock terms, is the obsession by certain US neocon factions that Washington could prevail in a “limited”, localized, tactical nuclear war against Russia.
That’s the whole rationale behind extending US first-strike capability as close as possible to the Russian western borderlands.
Russian analysts stress that Moscow is already – “unofficially” – perfecting what would be their own first-strike capability in these borderlands. The mere hint of NATO attempting to start a countdown in Poland, the Baltics or the Black Sea may be enough to encourage Russia to strike.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov starkly refuted Trump and Bolton’s claims that Russia was violating the INF Treaty: “As far as we understood, the US side has made a decision, and it will launch formal procedures for withdrawing from this treaty in the near future.”
As for Russia’s resolve, everything one needs to know is part of Putin’s detailed intervention at the Valdai Economic Forum. Essentially, Putin did not offer any breaking news – but a stark reminder that Moscow will strike back at any provocation configured as a threat to the future of Russia.
Russians, in this case, would “die like martyrs” and the response to an attack would be so swift and brutal that the attackers would “die like dogs”.
The harsh language may not be exactly diplomatic. What it does is reflect plenty of exasperation towards the US conservatives who peddle the absurd notion of a “limited” nuclear war.
The harsh language also reflects a certainty that whatever the degree of escalation envisaged by the Trump administration and the Pentagon, that won’t be enough to neutralize Russian hypersonic missiles.
So, it’s no wonder that EU diplomats, trying to ease their discomfort, recognize that this, in the end, is all about the Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine and the necessity of keeping the massive US military-industrial-surveillance complex running.
Even as the clock keeps ticking closer to midnight.

Sins without Recourse, Beast without Remorse

October 26, 2018
by Norman Ball for The Saker Blog
“[W]e, as serious people, cannot examine the concrete problems that are thrown when the Russian Federation is accused of all mortal sins without recourse to the processes (norms) created for similar cases,” –from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s October 18th interview with RT France.
Russia labors under a West-imposed Original Sin that can obtain dispensation only with the former’s existential cessation. The root of this Sin is the root itself. Russia is Russia, after all. That cannot be rectified.
In light of this dead-stop, what can only be called an apriori –and fatal– naivete pervades much of the prescriptive analysis we read every day. If Putin would only hop or jump or swagger or dance (it differs from one sage to the next) then, we are assured, the properly calibrated gesture would elicit a jackpot of redemptive good will. Godot would pop over the horizon. The crisis would defuse.
Alas, this is an all-too-human read which, while perhaps befitting of a bygone era, falls short of the present moment’s activated spiritual Principalities.
Speaking of Godot, from the same interview that prefaces this essay, Lavrov resigns himself to a “serious, professional and non-propagandistic” discussion at some later time when the current “outbreak of political rage” abates. Whether or not he believes a terrestrial conclusion will arrive in time, we cannot know. He’s a poet. Is he a Christian? Lavrov, ever the consummate diplomat, is nonetheless obliged to sound the proper notes.
It remained for his boss, on the same day, to access otherworldly coordinates with the most astonishing rhetoric (Radio Free Europe called it, “more biblical than technical”) at a Sochi forum:
Putin is making the remarkable admission that if no honorable approach for Russia remains for recovering a constructive relationship with the West (and since crawling along a contritious path is out of the question), Heaven (or Hell) beckons in the wings for all parties.
For such a circumspect statesman to openly confess to The City of Man’s limitations in world affairs, and allow that God may have to sort it out on the other side, well, that’s a foreboding milestone. One shudders at what information he’s privy to as to warrant such a fatalistic statement of principle. Has the geopolitical tether truly run out?
Archetypes are the prefatory hoops through which all actions spring. With understandable forbearance (some armchair warriors would say belatedness), Putin has finally seized his end of the archetype of the apocalypse. (The gauntlet’s been lying on the ground for some time now; see the late Edward Edinger’s 2002 book of the same name). Nor can an utterances of this sort be retracted by secular communique. There it sits, in the global square, a white-hot psychic ember that must now be contended with.
My fellow prognosticators, this is not our parents’ geopolitics.
Know thy enemy. The snake never alters its stripes, though the prevailing terrain can at times abet its pattern. Like a boa constrictor, the implacable machine (Sartre) always awaits relaxation in its prey as a prelude to further tightening. Demonic eschatology continually splits the distance until it capitulates spasmodically within the claustrophobic space of the capstone. The pyramid is a progressively constricting geometry. There is no placating it. The Beast is an insistent geometric construct.
So it’s a form of madness to continually bemoan the rude particulars of the Beast’s blueprint. Would you kick a car for not being an airplane? The implacability is born of usury, an arithmetic pyramid that must have everything for itself.  Debt-money, eternally ravenous, is cursed to roam the earth paying its keep every minute of every day.
Don’t blame the debt-masters. Pity them. They’re the Machine’s most abject slaves. Witness their propensity for throwing themselves off buildings as a measure of unquenchable Babelian despair:
Master, come to my assistance!
Wrong I was in calling
Spirits, I avow,
For I find them galling,
Cannot rule them now.
–from The Sorceror’s Apprentice, Johann Goethe (tr. Paul Dyrsen)
What Russians must do, and admittedly it’s a problem, is to get out the way of their own country or else prostate themselves atop it. Andrei Fursov outlines the elite’s long-term interest in ‘Northern Eurasia’ (what amounts to Russia), as a post-apocalyptic, resource-rich life raft; what MacKinder might have called, the Heartland of the Heartland.
Mephistopheles comes by way of Sergie ‘the Snake’ Kudrin and his borrowed, if not outright mutinous, prescription.  (Scott Humor translates here):
“Therefore, today Russia’s foreign policy should be subordinated to the reduction of tension in our relations with other countries, and, at least, to the preservation or reduction of the sanctions regime, not to the build-up. Today I would measure the effectiveness of our foreign policy on this indicator.”
Of course selective subordination (of the foreign policy portfolio only) is tantamount to total capitulation further along. Ruslan Ostashko asks the obvious question rhetorically of Kudrin: “What will prevent the West from reinstating these sanctions back, after we make all those changes?” Well yes, what precedent –and please venture beyond Gorbachev’s unilateral dumping of the Brezhnev Doctrine for examples if you must– would compel anyone to think reciprocal accommodations ever arrive?
Anthropomorphic daydreams can never take the measure of the Beast. Left to themselves, human beings rest, commiserate, empathize and trade amicably among themselves with an innate sense of proportionality and fairness. The trouble is Paul’s Principalities, good and evil, never leave us to ourselves. Moreover these forces are vaulting increasingly to the fore as even Putin’s off-world meanderings reveal.
Faustian bargains are the West’s own jealous poison, thank you very much Mr. Kudrin. As such, they’re forever withheld from authentic Russian ingestion. Find your own poison in your own time, we might say, one civilization to another. To jump the tracks for ours would be a form of neo-Petrinism (manifested, in the present era, by doting Atlanticists like, well, Kudrin. Oswald Spengler would recognize him as Petrinism’s “artificial product made of stubborn material”.)
Spengler, more poet than historian, offers the penetrating eye of the stranger. His prescience for the Russian destiny is paraphrased by Kerry Bolton here:
The Russian soul is not the same as the Western Faustian, as Spengler called it, the ‘Magian’ of the Arabian civilization, or the Classical of the Hellenes and Romans. The Western Culture that was imposed on Russia by Peter the Great, what Spengler called Petrinism, is a veneer…The Russian soul expresses its own type of infinity, albeit not that of the Westerner’s Faustian soul, which becomes enslaved by its own technics at the end of its life-cycle.”
Many of those ‘technics’ fall under what Spengler called “money-thinking”. At the twilight of its life-cycle the West threatens to withhold its toxicity from all those who don’t ‘play fair’, plying its financial sanctions like an overused tool-set: fractional reserve banking, impudent debt-money that arrives ex nihilo seeking its keep from God-knows-where, leverage that belabors ever-narrowing denominators of intrinsic value.
When the Beast cannot steal, its existing purloined cache is re-leveraged, pacing frenetically until it can steal again. Somewhere in the bowels of the NY Fed behind iron-clad doors, guarded by an ogre, sits a Leverage Machine, Chartered Accountant to the Beast. The lights are flashing red. How do we know this? Because the 24/7 Russian Demonization Campaign tells us so. The manically repetitive narrative is an audio loop cued to the red-lit console.
The West’s sanctions subtract from its own beleaguered base. The ‘cure’, ever more green-fields, serves only to postpone the patient’s demise. The demands are satanic and mutually self-negating:  If you don’t bleed like me, I promise I will kill you.
The various sanctions regimes harbor no rapprochements and coax no favored outcomes. They are nihilistic in spirit and anti-Christian by design. Spengler spoke of Russia’s peculiar historic mission. Could that mission be Armageddon itself?
The stakes, as we like to say, are incalculably high. The potential recoil, fatal. But then, People of the Book already know this.
Might the intelligence complex incite WW3 as a diversionary alternative to exposure and dismantlement? That’s a reasonable bet. After all, where on this planet today are rumors of wars not breaking out in earnest?
There’s a well-ensconced clique on the planet that views WW3 as the crucial next step. Putin seems to have joined them. In lieu of elaborate WMD contexts perpetrated on a sanguine populace, war planners might prefer a war that’s over almost before it starts. Inhuman velocity curtails the need for consensus-building.
NATO’s provocations are endless. However conventional force border-posturing is simply the aperitif. Nuclear escalation will occur with lightning speed.
In his grim but essential work, Eric Zuesse speaks to the current provocations in Ukraine and its Donbass region and the toss-up potential of a nuclear first strike being strategically ‘rationalized’ and perpetrated by either the Americans or the Russians. How perilous and frightening is that? Both sides are strategically obliged go nuclear first, although Putin seemed to remove a Russian first-strike from the table last week, a very noble and statesman-like assertion, to be sure. Who fully understands the dynamic between he and his Defense Minister? Sergei Shoigu might, on strictly military grounds, beg to differ.
Here’s Zuesse:
“Either way would likely produce from Russia a nuclear blitz-attack to eliminate as many of America’s retaliatory weapons as possible, so as to beat the US to the punch. In military terms, the side that suffers the less damage ‘wins’, even if it’s a nuclear war that destroys the planet. The side that would strike first in a nuclear war would almost certainly suffer the less damage, because most of the opponent’s retaliatory weaponry would be destroyed in that attack. Trump is playing nuclear “chicken” against Putin.”
Nuclear Primacy had been America’s post-MAD doctrine since 2006. (Here are the same two idiot-savants, Drs. Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, on paper, proving once and for all that intelligence is a circle.) The Russian nuclear detection system is horribly antiquated and, in an effort to tamp down the reigning madness, US officials are talking naval blockades and preemptive first strikes. Language is always the first bullet fired. America’s nuclear arsenal is to be upgraded over the next thirty years at an estimated cost of $1.2 trillion (October 2017 CBO report).
Paranoid much? You’d have to be a fool not to be. In fact you’d have to be an irreligious fool not to think thermonuclear exchange isn’t poised to occur in some demented parody of well-considered premeditation and forethought.
It’s the midnight after midnight and Doomsday’s tired of walking around the block. The Beast wants Russia either polishing boots in Basel or moving its Orthodox frontage to Mars. There is no middle ground. There is no dialectical accommodation. People are a temporary impediment to the wealth beneath their feet. Bankers eat birthrights for breakfast.
The inestimable trove of raw goodies under Eurasia must be secured or else the leverage-cubed that’s holding up the leverage-squared is going to collapse in a calamitous heap of non-real numbers and exhausted exponentiality.
Before he exited Stratfor, some say for a surfeit of candor, George Friedman laid out the last hundred-years of the game-plan. Mind you (and our German friends too), it’s nothing personal. It’s primordial, which is to say, quite equally of the future, an ‘interest’ that will not abate.
As Shiekh Iman Hosein insists, the repatriation of Crimea represents a huge and rare setback for the Beast’s cordon sanitaire strategy of containment (constriction?) Sixteenth-century Rabbi Elijah ben Shlomo Zalman (popularly known as the Vilna Gaon) acknowledged much the same:
“When you hear that the Russians have captured the city of Crimea, the ‘Times of the Messiah’ have started, that his steps are being heard”
There are not enough dimension frankly to deploy the appropriate chess game. But then we’re not in a chess game. We’re in an end-game. Finesse is an Enlightenment affectation. In a kingdom of hammers the adroit tactician is just another nail.
So enough please of rehabilitative measures, improved behaviors and well-considered countermeasures. No behavior under the sun will do until nuclear winter blots the sun from the sky. We’ve been staring down the barrel of Oppenheimer’s Shiva ever since some vanguard of Molochian butt-worshippers decided there’s life for them on the back-end of nihilistic cessation.
There is a war on against what Spengler termed, “the world-historical fact of Russia itself”. Putin seems finally to have risen to the existential occasion.

Friday, October 26, 2018

قمة بوتين ترامب بعد التدهور السعودي


أكتوبر 24, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– رغم المواعيد والاستحقاقات التصعيدية المتزاحمة التي تبشر بالمزيد من جولات التصعيد الأميركية بوجه روسيا، بقي مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي جون بولتون ليومين إضافيين في موسكو بانتظار لقاء الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين وطلب التوافق على عقد قمة عاجلة تجمع بوتين بالرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب، وصولاً لتحديد الموعد في غضون أسبوعين مقبلين. فما هو السبب لهذا الاستعجال على عقد القمة في ذروة الذهاب نحو مواجهة، رغم الحديث عن الانسحاب الأميركي من معاهدة الصواريخ الاستراتيجية الموقعة عام 1987، ورغم التحضير الأميركي لاعتبار تاريخ الرابع من تشرين الثاني المقبل موعداً فاصلاً لدخول ما تسمّيه واشنطن بالحزمة الحاسمة من العقوبات على إيران ومنعها من بيع النفط والغاز، ورغم اللغة العالية السقوف التي تقودها واشنطن بوجه موسكو.

– السعي لعقد القمة الروسية الأميركية لم يكن روسياً وما كان ليكون، فيما روسيا تتلقى إشارات التصعيد الأميركية، ومنها التصريحات التي تصف القرار الروسي بنشر شبكات دفاع جوي روسية متطوّرة في سورية بالعمل الخطير، ومنها اتهامات واشنطن لموسكو برفض التعاون لإخراج إيران وحزب الله من سورية، لكن السؤال يبقى حول كيفية المواءمة بين المسار التصعيدي الذي يشكّل خطاً بيانياً جامعاً للخطوات الأميركية في الملفات المشتركة مع موسكو، وبين السعي لقمة عاجلة تضمّ الرئيسين ترامب وبوتين، وله إحدى وظيفتين، إما توجيه إنذار أخير لموسكو قبل الدخول في مواجهة كبرى شاملة، وتبيان حجم النيات الأميركية الجدية في خوض المواجهة، لتكون القمة الفرصة الأخيرة المتاحة أميركياً لتراجع روسي يمهّد لتفادي المواجهة، ورسم توازن يمنح واشنطن اليد العليا في ملفات الخلاف، وإما أن تكون نيات واشنطن هي التراجع والتأقلم مع معادلات جديدة، وفتح الباب لتفاهمات وتسويات، لا تشبهها لغة التصعيد ولا عناوينها.

– التمهّل الروسي في تحديد موعد لقاء بولتون مع بوتين، كان استكشافاً لخلفيات طلب عقد القمة العاجلة، والأهداف منها، خصوصاً أن موسكو كانت دائماً ترفض قمة علاقات عامة لا تنتج تفاهمات، وتصرّ لقبولها عقد القمة وضوح الفرص للخروج بتسويات وتفاهمات. وهذا يعني انتفاء فرضية كون القمة التي تمّ التفاهم على عقدها خلال أسبوعين، الفرصة الأخيرة ما قبل المواجهة الشاملة، وترجيح كونها قمة فتح الباب للتسويات، ووضع التصعيد الأميركي في خانة الرسائل الإعلامية التي تريد واشنطن إرسالها إلى موسكو لطرح القمة كمخرج من التصعيد، لكن ذلك يستدعي الإجابة على سؤال، هل فقدت واشنطن الثقة بفاعلية خطواتها التصعيدية، وتخشى فقدان هيبة الذهاب للمزيد من التصعيد عندما تدخل مساراً عملياً لخطوات تصعيدية أنفقت وقتاً وجهداً وهي تبشر بها؟

– يطرح السؤال على أبواب دخول العقوبات ضدّ إيران ما وصفته بالحزمة الحاسمة، وعلى أبواب تبلور وضع جديد في سورية يعبر عنه توازن الردع الجوي لـ»إسرائيل»، مسار إدلب الذي يمهّد لإنهاء صيغ التقسيم في سورية ويطرح مستقبلاً جديداً وصيغاً جديدة للحل السياسي تحت سقف روسي واضح، ويستدعي من واشنطن الاختيار بين التأقلم مع هذا المتغير الكبير في سورية أو قرار مواجهته بما في ذلك خطر الدخول في مواجهة عسكرية، لكن الأهم أنه يُطرح بينما واشنطن تستشعر التراجع الاستراتيجي في مصادر قوة حليفيها الرئيسيين في المنطقة «إسرائيل» والسعودية، يوازيه تراجع في فرص نجاح رؤيتها للمواجهة السياسية المنفردة مع إيران التي تمثلها صفقة القرن بعد الفشل السعودي في تأمين الشريك الفلسطيني في الصفقة، وتفكك في الحلف التقليدي لواشنطن الذي تشكل أوروبا وتركيا وباكستان ركائز رئيسية فيه، ويشكل التفاهم النووي الإيراني أكبر اختباراته.

– ما تشهده الحال السعودية يبدو المتغير الرئيس الذي فرض استحقاق القمة العاجلة، والرئيس ترامب لم يخف اعتماده على الرياض كحليف رئيس بوجه إيران، والعطب السعودي يشكل عقب أخيل الذي أصاب الآلة الأميركية بالعطل، وخلق وقائع لا يمكن تجاهلها تفرض التفاهم مع موسكو كخيار حتمي لا يمكن إدارة الظهر له، ولو بتسويات تهدئ التصعيد في الظاهر، لكنها تمهّد لتفاهمات عميقة في الجوهر يتم الكشف عنها تباعاً بسلاسة وبتوقيت مناسب.

– قمة ما بعد التدهور السعودي ليست كما قبلها.

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