This is What Can be Accomplished During Imran Khan’s Visit to China

By Adam Garrie
Source

Later this week, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan will take his first official visit to China. As Pakistan’s neighbour and most important all-weather ally, the visit is of incomparable importance as Pakistan stands on the verge of fulfilling the next stages of inspiring new projects throughout the country, many of which have been jointly initiated with China. Furthermore, international pressures as well as domestic challenges that have arisen over the last year mean that China is well placed to offer Pakistan the kind of sustainable economic assistance required to rectify problems that previous Pakistani governments failed to address. With this in mind, here are the goals that can be achieved during Imran’s inaugural visit to China:

Securing a loan 

Last week Saudi Arabia gave Pakistan a one year loan of $3 billion with an addition $3 billion offered in the form of deferred payments for oil. The agreement was made on the same day that Imran Khan attended the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. This itself is demonstrative of the no nonsense approach that Imran takes when dealing with important multilateral issues. Imran Khan’s positive meetings with the Saudi leadership along with his statement that Pakistan is willing to play a role as a mediator in regional conflicts including the war in Yemen, indicates that far from Saudi offering a “sympathy loan” to Islamabad, rapidly emerging geopolitical trends and Pakistan’s own economic development makes Pakistan a crucial partner for Riyadh.

The $10 billion that Saudi Arabia has invested for the purposes of building an oil refinery in the Pakistani port city of Gwadar makes it clear that not only is Gwadar fast becoming one of the most important hubs for global trade but that in integrating Saudi investment into the city that represents the southern terminus of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Saudi Arabia is attempting to utilise the decades of good will between itself and Pakistan in order to become more immersed in the win-win relationship stemming from direct participation in the Belt and Road Initiative.

The IMF has already made it clear that as expected, all of Pakistan’s current internal and bilateral projects will be scrutinised from the overtly American perspective of the IMF’s top officials. As such, Chinese officials are well aware that Washington could use its influence on the IMF to meddle in the progress of multiple CPEC related and other regional Sino-Pakistani projects. This gives China a clear incentive to help its neighbour whose current account deficit has widened due to the economic mismanagement of previous Pakistani governments.

Beyond this, a Chinese investment in Pakistan in the form of a loan should also be described as an investment in China. As China and Pakistan have shared interests in seeing that the full extent of neighbourly cooperation bears the sweetest possible fruits, China requires an economically stable Pakistan in order to realise this win-win goal. Imran Khan’s optimistic spirit and his domestic war on corruption itself mirrors that which Xi Jinping has engaged in for the benefit of the Chinese people. While no nation wants to throw money away, China knows that Pakistan has the potential to be a great economic power and that as such, a loan to Pakistan would represent an effort to help Imran Khan bring his nation back to economic solvency while the unwise practices of his predecessors that were ultimately bad for Pakistan and its partners are now a thing of the past and as such encouraged investor confidence from many quarters. Thus, a Chinese loan to Pakistan should be viewed as an important investment in a mutually sustainable future based on transparency and a neighbourly opposition to all forms of degrading corruption.

Taken in totality, there remains an opportunity for Imran to secure a loan from China which when combined with the existing Saudi loan could help Pakistan to avoid the IMF all together.

Fight fake news about Belt and Road/CPEC together 

Those with an interest in retarding the progress of Belt and Road and CPEC specifically have launched an all out disinformation war about the current healthy state of China-Pakistan relations. This disinfo war itself is part of a wider drive among certain malicious actors to drive a wedge between China and its partners in the Ummah (global Islamic community). It also serves as an outgrowth of America’s zero-sum attitude to Belt and Road that is expressed in non-factual media reports across several journalistic markets.

When Pakistan’s Foreign Minister addressed the United Nations last month, he presented Pakistan as a champion of the multi-national Belt and Road initiative that is sometimes described as merely a Chinese rather than multilateral initiative. In standing beside Xi Jinping, Imran Khan has the opportunity to not just expose the lies but attack the sources of the lies regarding malicious anti-CPEC stories while showing the world that Pakistan and China remain positively jointly committed to win-win relationships that will transform not just Pakistan but multiple Asian and African nations through enhanced connectivity and economic modernisation in the wider Afro-Eurasian space.

A rounded perspective on Xinjiang

Unlike some of Imran Khan’s predecessors, Imran Khan has shown himself to be deeply in touch with the charitable, austere and compassionate roots of Islam. As such, Imran Khan has vowed to revitalise the dream of national father Muhammad Ali Jinnah to transform Pakistan into an Islamic welfare state.

While mostly non-Muslims and non-Chinese continue to write absurd stories about life in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, particularly where the welfare of Muslims residents are concerned, Imran Khan is well placed to dispel this rumour by publicly relating how Chinese and Islamic values are neither incompatible nor mutually exclusive in practical terms.

As Xinjiang province borders Pakistan, there is all the more reason for Imran Khan to express feelings of unity as a means of dispelling attempts to divide the Ummah from its natural Chinese friend and partner.

New economic initiatives

The spirit of Naya Pakistan (new Pakistan) has been felt not only by Pakistanis but by much of the wider world. Chinese officials have already expressed how it is Beijing’s desire to tap into this spirit of forward thinking to work on new mutual projects that will transform the lives of multiple people in both nations, thus offering the Pakistani and Chinese people a future based on sustainable development through deeper and wider cooperative efforts.

While many Pakistanis are squarely focused on the loan that they hope to secure from a partner like China, Imran Khan has been wise in reminding Pakistanis not to be consumed by the negative legacies of the past. While the mistakes of the past must be dealt with, Imran Khan has also encouraged Pakistani’s to dream positive and healthy dreams for themselves and their country. This attitude is similar to the Chinese Dream that is encouraged through the people-centred initiatives detailed in Xi Jinping Thought. Because of this, it is clear that the only thing more constructive than two neighbours dreaming big is dreaming big together.

More cultural exchange 

Prioritising visits by Chinese tourists to Pakistan and Pakistani tourists to China is a vital way to secure the best possible future relations. Additionally, musicians, artists, sportspeople and great minds from both countries ought to present their talents to those on the other side of the border in order to demonstrate that the benefits of a modern win-win partnership have the ability to foster enlightened human development as well as economic and infrastructural development.

A commitment to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 

Pakistan’s membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gives the country a seat in an important organisation that can help bring further peace to Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, help to foster peace within Afghanistan and work to fight terrorism across multiple states. Iman Khan’s own views that extremism must be fought through a combination of proactive security measures and the draining of the swamp of economic destitution in which extremism foments is itself not dissimilar from the methods China has used to rid Xinjiang of extremism.

Furthermore, the regional government that PTI first formed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2013 helped to pioneer education and social welfare as means of lifting people out of both poverty and the related trap of extremism simultaneously. As China continues to do the same in Xinjiang in accordance with Chinese characteristics, both countries can share and pool their experiences in fighting extremist threats that continue to dominate issues at the level of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Such an exchange of methodology can help the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to become a more potent force for security in the region.

Conclusion 

Iman Khan’s visit to China will be an important moment where a dignified and forward looking Pakistani leader will be able to make the most out of a decades long all-weather friendship with the most important economic superpower in today’s world. So long as the meeting is guided by the optimistic spirit of Naya Pakistan, both countries will be able to achieve much on a win-win basis.

ثبوت «النية المسبقة» لقتل خاشقجي لا يعطّل النيّة المسبقة لصفقة مرابحةٍ ثلاثية

أكتوبر 29, 2018

د. عصام نعمان

للمرة الثالثة تبدّل السعودية روايتها لملابسات تصفية جمال خاشقجي. فمن رواية القتل أثناء «شجار واشتباك بالأيدي» داخل قنصليتها في اسطنبول، إلى رواية القتل بـ «كتم النَفَس»، إلى إقرارٍ من النيابة العامة في الرياض بأنّ المشتبه فيهم « أقدموا على فعلتهم بنية مسبقة».

ثبوت النية المسبقة للقتل لدى المشتبه فيهم السعوديين لم يعطّل نية دونالد ترامب المسبقة لتفادي إدانة محمد بن سلمان بل لتبرئته. إدانة ولي العهد وهو الحاكم الفعلي للبلاد تعني إدانة السعودية دولةً ومسؤولين. لوحظ منذ بداية تواتر الظنون والإتهامات ان ليس في نية الرئيس الأميركي التسليم بإدانة محمد بن سلمان لأنها تستتبع بالضرورة إنزال عقوبات شديدة بالسعودية ليس أقلها صرف النظر عن صفقة تزويدها أسلحةً بقيمة 110 مليار دولار.

ليس ترامب وحده من يستهول خسارة الصفقة المليارية. لوبي صنّاع السلاح وتجّاره في الولايات المتحدة يشاطر شاغل البيت الأبيض موقفه الحريص على مصلحة «أميركا أولاً». «رابطةُ الصناعات الجوية» التي تضمّ كبريات شركات الصناعات العسكرية كـ «لوكهيد مارتن» و«نورتروب جورمان» و«بوينغ» و«ريثون» و«جنرال داينمكس» بعثت برسالة إلى إدارة ترامب تتضمّن «نقاطاً طارئة» هي بمثابة برنامج عمل لصنّاع السلاح لاعتماده في الضغط على صنّاع القرار في الولايات المتحدة. تتمحور نقاط الرسالة على حجة رئيسة مفادها «أننا، ببيعنا المنتجات الأميركية للحلفاء والشركاء، نستطيع أن نضمن ألاّ يتمكّن أعداؤناً من أن يحلّوا محلنا في علاقاتنا السياسية والعسكرية والاقتصادية».

إلى ترامب ولوبي السلاح الأميركي، تحظى السعودية بدعم ضمني من «إسرائيل» واللوبي اليهودي الصهيوني «إيباك» في واشنطن، ذلك لأنّ لـ «إسرائيل»، بحسب دان شابيرو، سفير الولايات المتحدة السابق في تل أبيب، «مصلحة قوية في أن تبقى السعودية حليفة للولايات المتحدة من أجل القيام بأفضل الاستعدادات لمواجهة إيران» راجع مقالته في صحيفة «هآرتس» بتاريخ 2018/10/19 .

في إطار التحسّب لموقف إدارة ترامب وانعكاسه المحتمل على العلاقة الضمنية المتنامية بين «إسرائيل» والسعودية في مواجهة إيران، نشر زلمان شوفال، سفير تل أبيب السابق في واشنطن، مقالة في صحيفة «معاريف» 2018/10/22 كشف فيها انّ زيارة وزير الخارجية الأميركي مايك بومبيو الأخيرة الى الرياض واجتماعه الى الملك سلمان وولي عهده انتهت الى التفاهم على «صيغة أساسُها اعتراف السعودية بما حدث من دون تفاصيل أو من دون الإشارة إلى مسألة مَن أعطى الأوامر، وانّ هذا السيناريو يفترض أن يؤدّي إلى محاكمة استعراضية تجري للذين نفذوا الجريمة في القنصلية السعودية في اسطنبول».

ما موقف تركيا مما جرى على أراضيها وما دورها المرتقب في سيناريو «اللفلفة» الجاري على قدم وساق؟

قيل إن «لا أحد في الشرق الأوسط يقدّم خدمات مجانية». أورد هذا القول السفير شابيرو في مقالته آنفة الذكر. من هنا فإنّ همّ أنقرة الرئيس سوف يتركّز، بطبيعة الحال، على الثمن الممكن استخلاصه من السعودية وأميركا مقابل «لفلفة» هذه الجريمة الحدث التي ارتكبت فوق الأرض التركية. في هذا السياق، تابَع ويتابع رجب طيب أردوغان ووزير خارجيته مولود جاويش أوغلو الكشف بالتدريج عن الوقائع والحقائق التي تتوصل اليها التحقيقات في القنصلية السعودية ومحيطها ومع موظفيها، مقرونةً بحرصهما على طرح المزيد من الأسئلة المحرجة حول هوية الآمر الفعلي بارتكاب الجريمة وعن مصير جثة خاشقجي. غير أنهما في كلّ ما يقولانه يحرصان أيضاً على إبقاء باب المفاوضة والمساومة والمقايضة مفتوحاً مع الرياض ومع واشنطن بدليل استبعاد جاويش أوغلو إحالة القضية على المحكمة الجنائية الدولية.

ما هي الخطوط العريضة المحتملة لصفقة القرن الجديدة بين العواصم الثلاث؟

ما يهمّ الرياض، بالدرجة الأولى، إبعاد أصابع الاتهام عن ولي العهد محمد بن سلمان لتبقى السلطة في عهدته ومعها تبرئة سمعة المملكة التي لاكتها ألوف الألسنة بالذمّ والتأثيم والتجريم احتجاجاً وإدانةً لحربها الظالمة على اليمن، ولنصرتها الحرب الإرهابية في سورية وعليها بالتعاون مع الولايات المتحدة وتركيا، وانخراطها في «الحرب الناعمة» التي يشنّها التحالف الصهيوأميركي على إيران والتزام تصنيفها العدو الأول للعرب في الحاضر والمستقبل بدلاً من الكيان الصهيوني العنصري التوسّعي المغتصب.

ما يهمّ أنقرة، بالدرجة الأولى، الحصول من السعودية على تعويضٍ مالي وازن مقابل امتناعها عن إدانة محمد بن سلمان، والضغط على واشنطن لحملها على التسليم بهيمنة تركيا على شمال سورية، ولا سيما على مناطق شرق الفرات، بدعوى تحصين الأمن القومي التركي في وجه الأكراد السوريين الإنفصاليين المتعاونين مع الإرهابيين من أنصار حزب العمال الكردستاني التركي. وقد تقوم أنقرة بالضغط على واشنطن لمساعدتها في حمل السعودية على رفع حصارها عن قطر. بذلك كله يظنّ أردوغان وجماعته انهم يكرّسون دوراً لتركيا كقوة إقليمية كبرى.

ما يهمّ واشنطن، بالدرجة الأولى، المحافظة على السعودية كحليف مقبول ومرغوب داخل الولايات المتحدة ولدى حلفائها الأطلسيين كي تستمرّ معها في عقد صفقات أسلحة بمليارات الدولارات، وفي محاصرة إيران سياسياً واقتصادياً وأمنياً، وفي توظيف الجهود لتعطيل سياستها المعادية لـ «اسرائيل» والداعمة لسورية وقوى المقاومة العربية، ولا سيما تلك المنخرطة في صراعٍ مرير ضدّ الهيمنة الأميركية والعدوان الصهيوني.

الخلاصة؟

توحي التطورات والواقعات وبعض المعلومات المتسرّبة من الحوار الضمني الجاري بين العواصم الثلاث بإمكان التوصّل، عاجلاً او آجلاً، إلى تسويةٍ مرنة لصفقة مرابحةٍ ثلاثية فيها من المقايضات ما يتيح لكلٍّ من أطرافها رعاية همومه وتحقيق أغراضه الرئيسة بتكلفة مقبولة.

وزير سابق

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MBS Peace Versus Pieces

October 29, 2018

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

Ever since Saudi Arabia signed its agreement with American President Roosevelt in February 1945, it never ever considered, or even contemplated to be outside the American sphere of influence and protection.

In my previous article https://thesaker.is/the-price-of-bin-salmans-head/ I elaborated on some of the personal issues that define the nature of the relationship that Saudi royals have with American lawmakers as men, not as politicians, not as allies, but simply as men trying to understand and deal with each other.

With all the dirt, greed, blood and guts, when one looks into the American-Saudi relationship from the outside, it’s clear that they are very different to each other and couldn’t have worked together successfully whether on good or nefarious projects. Neither of them had any good intentions toward the other or to the rest of the world; they deserved each other.

The Saudi-American marriage “was” at best a marriage of convenience, in which both parties looked at each other with the view of a one-stop-shop convenience store.

To the Saudis, the American one-stop-shop meant a customer with great thirst for oil, wealth to buy it with, and military might and determination to protect its flow.

To the Americans, the Saudi one-stop-shop meant a supplier of virtually endless supplies of a crucial commodity, one that is unable to stand on its own feet and dictate its terms, and one that will bend over and backwards to ensure continuity of sales for and protection.

The marriage was perhaps an epitome of pragmatism, though it was not often perceived as such.

But think about it, just look at the irony; an anti-democratic fundamentalist Muslim nation that sees all non-Muslims as infidels, signing the deal of the century with a nation that is secular, predominantly Christian and allegedly the protector of democracy.

But back in early 1945, pre-Hiroshima America was not technically a superpower yet, and Saudi Arabia was an insignificant and, by-and-large, an unknown kingdom to the rest of the world. Back then, the paradox was not as pronounced as it is now.

And even though by 1945 the Zionist Lobby was well and truly preparing for the creation of Israel, the American-Saudi deal would have gone ahead with or without any Israeli presence and role. It goes without saying though, that the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 has, among other things, created geopolitical turmoil which made it more pertinent for the Saudi-American marriage to withstand the ravages of time.

The marriage has lasted, and it’s not time for divorce, at least not yet, but perhaps the time has come for a serious revision; from both ends of the bargain.

If MBS hasn’t yet realized that the Americans can drop him personally like a hot potato, then he must be stupid. Indications are he is ruthless, arrogant, ambitious, megalomaniac, hasty, but stupid he is not.

The manner in which the Khashoggi episode has been manipulated by the media and the whole West is partly to be blamed on the Saudi state, and partly on MBS personally. And when Saudi FM Al-Jubair tries on several occasions to distance MBS from the story, he is actually expressing the biggest Saudi fear and inadvertently putting MBS in the centre court and line of fire.

Saudi Arabia is therefore facing two Western “attacks”; one that is general and centered on the whole regime and another that is centered on MBS himself. It is most hypocritical of the EU nations to suddenly consider enforcing an arms sales embargo on Saudi Arabia. The Khashoggi story did not have any impact on the war on Yemen. The suffering of the Yemeni people has been going on ever since the needless criminal war started. And although the current EU stand can go a long way in isolating Saudi Arabia and perhaps weakening its military ability, it has come, if it comes, too little too late, and for all the wrong reasons.

For MBS, he now has many confrontations to contend with. His money-grabbing November 2017, Ritz Hotel house arrest of his cousins has left him with very few supporters from within the Royal Family. He is the Crown Prince to a throne that no longer has a formal lineage for succession and, it doesn’t even now have a second-in-line to MBS. In essence, every descendant of founding King Abdul Aziz is eligible and there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of grandchildren.

His biggest domestic, or rather home battle therefore, is to make sure that the current impasse with America does not generate a strong contender for the throne, one that he is unable to set aside. And given that he has already been blemished by brutality after the Khashoggi drama, any stifling of royal dissent, even revolt, can easily be manipulated by the West again in a manner that portrays him as a new Saddam.

I have used the term “new Saddam” before, and we may need to get used to hearing it.

MBS will then have to tread very carefully with his cousins to ensure his position as Crown Prince is stable and unchallenged. Will he be able to do this? No one knows, especially if one of the challenging contenders suddenly receives bottomless Western support.

The other battle that MBS has to contend with is his diplomatic one with America and the rest of the West. The events of the last few weeks would have proven to him that without the façade of Western impunity, he is finished. He now knows that he doesn’t have a safe haven on the top of the hill with the big boys. And once again, he will have to pay America a price for his survival. He does not seem to have better choices.

But this situation is persuading him to scale down his reliance on America. However, when Saudi officials try to alarm America by making statements to the effect that they can buy Russian weapons instead of American ones, the American position becomes more resolute. Such ploys backfire on the Saudis.

Saudi Arabia cannot replace America with Russia, and for many reasons. If the Saudi-American marriage had its own ideological contradictions which both parties managed to overlook, a prospective Saudi-Russian marriage would have many more obstacles that would make it impossible to come to fruition; especially if Saudi Arabia demands the kind of military protection from Russia as it has demanded from the USA.

Saudi Arabia and Russia can engage in trade, sales of military hardware, etc., but they cannot and will not have a relationship that is akin to the Saudi-American marriage.

For starters, the two nations have never trusted each other, and they are not about to start doing this now. The support of Saudi Arabia to Jihadi fighters in Afghanistan in the early 1980’s and their continued support to Chechen terrorists are still fresh in the minds of Russians. After all, it was only five years ago that Prince Bandar Bin Sultan threatened President Putin with restarting the Chechen war if Putin did not support him in Syria.

And unlike the hypocritical West, Russia would not tolerate Saudi-sponsored fundamentalist religious schools to be spawned all over the Russian landscape.

And let us not forget that Russia does not need Saudi oil like America did, and if anything, to this effect, the two nations are competitors.

Knowing that flagging snuggling up with Russia made MBS’s impasse with America even worse, he seems to be taking a slightly different interim approach based on creating a situation that reduces his immediate need for America’s support, without having to go to bed with its mortal enemies.

An “allegedly” Pakistani initiative has been launched in an attempt to end the war in Yemen https://timesofislamabad.com/27-Oct-2018/yemeni-houthi-rebels-responds-to-pakistan-offer-and-stance-over-yemen-peace-talks .Whilst any attempt to end the war on Yemen is welcome news, the timing of such an initiative now draws suspicion.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a special and strong relationship despite some serious hiccups in the past. It is alleged that Saudi Arabia has contributed largely towards the development costs of the Pakistani A-Bomb, and in return, it expected to be supplied with A-Bombs, but Pakistan refused. And even though Pakistan also later on reneged on its promise to support the Saudi war on Yemen, neither Pakistan nor Saudi Arabia make any public negative statements about each other. In more ways than one, Saudi Arabia does not want bad blood with the only predominantly Sunni Muslim nation with nuclear arms, and Pakistan does not want bad blood with the richest Sunni nation either.

It is possible, in fact highly likely, that MBS whispered into Pakistani PM, Imran Khan’s ear, to launch the initiative of peace with Yemen. Thus far, the Yemenis have welcomed it (see reference above), and they cannot be blamed. They are suffering a huge humanitarian catastrophe that the world does not want to know about. As yet, there hasn’t been an official Saudi comment, and this implies acceptance. Had this “initiative” been made at a time when the war was winnable or had MBS personally not been under such enormous pressure, the Saudis would have immediately rejected it outright.

If MBS manages to end the War on Yemen, he will be setting aside one huge problem, and without a battle raging, his need for Western weapons would not be as critical as it is right now. Such a move would also preclude his immediate need for Russian weapons to replace American weapons with.

It seems that MBS has finally come to the realization that he is trying to bite off more than he can chew. But ultimately, unless he de-escalates his stand against Iran, he will remain under American stranglehold. On the other hand, if he indeed manages to find a face-saving exit from Yemen and also finds a way to manage less hostile relationships with Iran, he would be putting himself in the cross fire of America and Israel which he is trying hard to normalize relationships with.

Whilst contemplating all options available, MBS must see himself in the position of a dead man walking; with the choice of method of his own execution.

If he holds his ground against America, America can tighten the noose and suspend the arms supplies that he desperately needs for his war in Yemen. His Kingdom of Sand is a country that has a military budget exceeding that of Russia’s, but is unable to manufacture even bullets. Everything is imported, and if the war runs out of ammunition, MBS will have to beg other nations to supply him. This carries the potential risk of having the Houthis encroaching on Riyadh itself. But America can choose another course. With many Saudi princes begrudging MBS and harbouring strong vendettas against him, America can sponsor and support a rival prince who can challenge MBS for the position of Crown Prince. America can even sponsor a number of would-be contenders to the throne instead of just one, and thereby creating a fertile ground for a civil war that lures in other rival factions and not only necessarily royals. This can generate a state of chaos similar to what we now see in Libya. A civil war of this nature can go on for years with no clear winners. Such chaos, however, will not necessarily disrupt the flow of oil because its geographical theater will be centered around the precincts of the royals and their palaces around Riyadh and Jeddah, far away from the oil fields in the Eastern Province.

Knowing Americans and, judging by their history, they may opt to incite strife and prince-vs-prince rivalry. And even if the instability expands to the Eastern Province, the USA can always find a way to enact some resolution or another to put its hands on the oil fields as a measure of “national security”.

Unless MBS magically and miraculously finds a way out, he may have to choose between peace with his cousins plus, much to his dismay, peace with his regional enemies and rivals, or face the prospect of seeing his kingdom sliced into pieces. On the other hand, if MBS gives in to America’s demands, he may be able to keep his head and throne, but he will end up with an empty wallet and oil fields with title deeds in the name of the US Federal Reserve. Painful as it may sound, it is perhaps his only way out of this mess.

It’s a tough one for MBS. He is in a damned-if-you-do-and-damned-if-you-don’t situation, but in reality, he only has himself to blame. He and his evil predecessors have a long history of cruelty, arrogance, criminality and creating mayhem. Karma is catching up with them, and they deserve what they get.

See Also

• MBS’ Failures

قضية الخاشقجي ومَن يحمي بلاد الحرمين

أكتوبر 29, 2018

زياد حافظ

قضية الخاشقجي، الصحافي الذي اختفى بعد دخوله قنصلية بلاد الحرمين في اسطنبول، والملابسات التي أحاطت باختفائه قد تشكّل نقطة تحوّل في العلاقات الأميركية التركية والعلاقات الأميركية مع حكومة الرياض. والحملة الإعلامية الغربية وفي طليعتها صحيفة «الواشنطن بوست» المقرّبة جدّا من وكالة الاستخبارات المركزية الأميركية تهدف إلى وضع مسافة بين الإدارة والحكومة في الرياض في الحدّ الأدنى أو التخلّي كلّيا عن المملكة في الحد الأقصى. وسيظل السجال بين الحدّين لفترة من الزمن إلى أن تتبلور معادلات محلّية، وعربية، وإقليمية، ودولية تستطيع من رسم مستقبل بلاد الحرمين التي دخلت مرحلة عدم استقرار بنيوية على الصعيد السياسي والاقتصادي والاجتماعي والثقافي.

فالملابسات التي رافقت قضية الاختفاء وثم قتل الصحافي كانت لها تداعيات مباشرة على سمعة بلاد الحرمين بشكل عام وسمعة ولي العهد بشكل خاص. بالنسبة لنا، لا تمكن مقاربة ما حدث إلاّ من منظور سياسي استراتيجي وليس من باب الحدث بحدّ ذاته رغم أهميته ودلالاته على سلوك النخب الحاكمة وطبيعة النظام القائم في بلاد الحرمين. وعلى ما يبدو فهناك محاولات حثيثة تُبذل لضبط إيقاع تلك التداعيات على الأقل في المدى المنظور على دور ولي العهد والعلاقات مع الولايات المتحدة وتركيا بشكل خاص، وذلك منعاً لخصوم الولايات المتحدة في الإقليم من الاستفادة من الحدث. الهدف الأساسي من كل تلك المحاولات هو منع التغيير في سياسات حكومة الرياض بعد تغريدة تركي الدخيل المقرّب من ولي العهد والذي هدّد بقلب الطاولة على الجميع إذا ما استهدف ولي العهد والمملكة. صحيح أنه تم سحب المقال غير أنه يمكن القول إن أدّى الوظيفة المطلوبة في حثّ كل من واشنطن وانقرة على التريّث في توجيه الاتهامات. فعلى ما يبدو هناك صفقة متعدّدة الأضلاع دولياً وإقليمياً تُعد لتجاوز الحدث.

فعلى صعيد الإعلام الأميركي تراجعت القضية إلى الخلف حيث حلّت مكانها قضية الطرود المشبوهة التي وصلت إلى رموز معارضي الرئيس الأميركي. كما أنه بعد أقل من أسبوعين ستُجرى الانتخابات النصفية الأميركية وبالتالي الاهتمام في قضية الخاشقجي سيتراجع أكثر فأكثر. تبقى صحيفة «الواشنطن بوست» التي ما زالت قضية الخاشقجي تشغلها لأنه «واحد منهم». وأهمية الصحيفة تكمن في العلاقات العضوية التي تربطها بوكالة الاستخبارات المركزية والعقود التي تمّ إبرامها العام الماضي بقيمة 600 مليون دولار بين الوكالة والصحيفة للقيام بخدمات معلوماتية للوكالة. لكن الحملة على كل من الرئيس ترامب وولي العهد في المملكة والعلاقة بين الولايات المتحدة وبلاد الحرمين لن تغيّب مدى الكارثة الجيوسياسية التي تواجهها الولايات المتحدة في حال سقوط الأسرة الحاكمة في الرياض بعد تراكم الأخطاء المميتة التي ارتكبت خلال السنوات الماضية. فالسقوط المحتمل في المدى المنظور إذا نجحت الحملة التي يقودها الإعلام الأميركي ومعه بعض القوى السياسية في الولايات المتحدة فستفضي إلى كارثة مشابهة لسقوط الشاه عام 1979. لذلك من المستبعد أن تسمح الولايات المتحدة والكيان الصهيوني بحصول ذلك. ومن هنا نفهم محاولات استيعاب تداعيات الجريمة التي ارتكبت في القنصلية في اسطنبول.

ومن هذه الزاوية يجب فهم الهجمة التطبيعية في بعض الدول في مجلس التعاون الخليجي وفي مقدمتها زيارة رئيس وزراء الكيان لسلطنة عمان. الهلع الذي يسود في الولايات المتحدة والكيان الصهيوني من خسارة ورقة بلاد الحرمين تجعلهما يسرعان في تمرير ما يمكن تمريره لما يُسمّى بـ «صفقة القرن» عبر محاولات يائسة أو لإحياء حلّ الدولتين كما جاء على لسان وزير خارجية السلطنة والذي لا يريده الكيان. فالمأزق الاستراتيجي الذي وقع فيه كل من الولايات المتحدة والكيان يجعلهما حرق ما تبقّى من أوراق في الجزيرة العربية وخاصة بالنسبة لسلطنة عمان التي كانت تحظى بهالة من الحكمة والتعقّل في ملفّات شائكة كالملف الإيراني والسوري واليمني.

نسرد هذه الملاحظات لأن حادثة جريمة القتل قد تكون القشّة التي قصمت ظهر البعير. قد يستطيع ولي العهد في بلاد الحرمين تجاوز شبهات التهمة المباشرة له بسبب أوراق عديدة يمتلكها كالتهديد بتغيير السياسات كما جاء في مقال تركي الدخيل غير أن الهيكل الذي يعيش فيه ويحميه قد ينهار إن لم تحصل تطوّرات درامية وجذرية في السياسة. لسنا متأكدين أن تغييراً في الأشخاص قد يفي بالغرض المطلوب بل التغيير في السياسات هو الذي يجب أن يحصل. لكن ذلك التغيير في السياسات رهن عوامل متعدّدة يصعب ضبط إيقاعها. العامل الأول هو عدم جهوزية «بديل» عن ولي العهد في ظل وجود والده الملك سلمان. وعدم الجهوزية تعود إلى الخلافات داخل الأسرة الحاكمة التي رافقت تنصيب ولي العهد. فالانقسامات التي ظهرت تشير إلى صعوبة بالغة في الحصول على إجماع في مبايعة ولي عهد جديد يفرضه الملك كي تستمرّ السياسات التي تريدها الولايات المتحدة. بالمقابل، فإن استمرار السياسات القائمة مع ولي العهد الحالي هو استمرار للفشل. فلا التغيير ممكن حالياً ولا الاستمرار في السياسات الحالية.

على الصعيد الخارجي هناك عوامل عدّة تهدّد مكانة بلاد الحرمين. فالعامل التركي يسعى إلى استغلال المأزق في نظام حكومة الرياض لتنصيب تركيا زعيمة للعالم الإسلامي. والابتزاز الذي تمارسه حكومة أنقرة تجاه كل من الرياض وواشنطن دليل على ذلك. فهناك قناعة أن حكومة الرياض أخفقت في تحقيق الأهداف المرسومة لها على صعيد الملفات العراقية والسورية واليمنية وخاصة الملف الفلسطيني لتمرير صفقة القرن. كما أن فقدان حكومة الرياض للورقة الباكستانية مع انتخاب عمران خان جعل آفاق زعامة العالم الإسلامي مفتوحة. والحالة شبيهة لتلك التي تلت إنهاء السلطنة العثمانية في الربع الأول من القرن الماضي حيث التنافس على زعامة العالم الإسلامي بين أسرة محمد علي وآل سعود والهاشميين ساد المشهد الإسلامي حتى ثورة 23 يوليو 1952. فالعالم الإسلامي دخل في حالة عدم استقرار وعدم توازن خاصة أن الدولتين اللتين تستطيعان قيادة العالم الإسلامي غير جاهزتين في المرحلة الحالية. فالجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران لا تحظى بإجماع إسلامي كما أن مصر التي تخلّت عن دورها في الصراع العربي الصهيوني يجعلها غير مقبولة في استعادة زمام الأمور على الصعيد العربي وبالتالي الإسلامي. من هنا يعتقد الرئيس التركي أن باستطاعته إعادة عقرب التاريخ إلى الوراء وإعادة دور العثمانية إلى الصدارة. وهذه الطموحات ترتكز إلى جماعة الإخوان المسلمين في العديد من الدول العربية لتثبيت تلك الزعامة. غير أن إخفاقات الجماعة في الدول العربية وما سببته من دمار وآلام يفقدها المصداقية لتحقيق طموحات الحكومة التركية.

العامل الآخر على الصعيد الخارجي هو ضعف الولايات المتحدة. فالولايات المتحدة اليوم غير الولايات المتحدة التي أعادت شاه إيران إلى العرش في الخمسينيات من القرن الماضي، وغير الولايات المتحدة التي اعتمدت بلاد الحرمين كبديل لإيران بعد سقوط الشاه. فالضعف الأميركي تبيّن في مقاربة الملفات الثلاثة الإيراني والعراقي والسوري، حيث تتجنّب الولايات المتحدة التورّط مباشرة وعسكرياً. وضعف الولايات المتحدة يتلازم مع ضعف الاتحاد الأوروبي رغم محاولات بعض الدول المحورية فيه كفرنسا وألمانيا من لعب دور أساسي في مقاربة الأزمات. فدورها رهن بالتسليم بالمعطيات الجديدة كصعود روسيا والصين ودورهما في قضايا الشرق الأوسط.

إذن الضعف الأميركي يواجه تحدّياً كبيراً في الإيفاء بالتزامات الدفاع عن المملكة والأسرة الحاكمة. فالابتزاز والإهانات الموجّهة للأسرة الحاكمة من قبل الرئيس الأميركي ترامب يقابله موقف في الكونغرس أقلّ تفهّماً للعلاقة مع الأسرة الحاكمة. فهناك من يعتبر أن العلاقة غير ذات جدوى ولا داعي للولايات المتحدة أن تتحالف مع ما يسمّيه المنتقدون في الكونغرس التحالف الاستراتيجي القائم لأنه يضّر بـ «سمعة الولايات المتحدة»، ولكن الأهم هو إخفاق المملكة بتمرير «صفقة القرن». صحيح أن الكيان الصهيوني يحرص على ألاّ يحرج بلاد الحرمين عبر الضغط على ولي العهد في مسألة قتل الخاشقجي غير أن زيارة رئيس الكيان لسلطنة عمان تشير إلى أن الكيان مستعدّ للتفاهم مع «بديل» آخر، وإن كان وزن «البديل» أقلّ بكثير من وزن بلاد الحرمين.

كل ذلك يؤكّد موقف المؤتمر القومي العربي وما رددناه مراراً أن حماية أي قطر عربي لن تحصل عبر تحالفات مشبوهة، أو عبر السماح لقواعد عسكرية لدول لا تريد الخير لشعوب المنطقة، ولا انتهاج سياسات «ترضي» الأميركي والكيان. إن ما يحمي أي قطر عربي هو أولاً التصالح والتفاهم مع شعبه، وثم التفاهم والتصالح مع الجماهير العربية الواسعة، وأن ذلك التصالح يمرّ أولاً عبر إيقاف الحرب العبثية على اليمن وثانياً عبر إيقاف دعم جماعات التعصّب والغلو التي تفتك في معظم الأقطار. لكن المعيار الأساسي لمصداقية أي تحوّل في السياسة هو الالتزام بقضية الشعب الفلسطيني وتأمين عودته إلى دياره بعد 70 سنة من الشتات. المثل اللبناني قائم حيث التفّ الشعب اللبناني حول جيشه ومقاومته فدحر المحتّل الصهيوني وصمد أمام عدوانه. فهل مَن يعتبر في المملكة؟

الأمين العام السابق للمؤتمر القومي العربي

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Dangerous Crossroads: Extensive Russian and Allied War Games in Response to US-NATO Military Buildup

By Prof Michel Chossudovsky

Global Research, October 23, 2018

Barely reported by the Western media, Russia has launched a series of war games in Europe and the Far East together with several of its allies.  These war games are largely in response to NATO’s military buildup on Russia’s Western frontier, in Eastern Europe, The Baltic States and Scandinavia.

They also coincide with Donald Trump’s decision to repeal the 1987 INF agreement signed between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. The Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty (INF), “aimed to eliminate short and medium range nuclear missiles.”

We are at a dangerous crossroads in our history. The broader public must be informed, particularly in NATO countries. It is crucial to restore sanity in international diplomacy to prevent the unthinkable. 

Examine the overlapping chronology of these war games. (September-December 2018).

The structure of military alliances has shifted. Russia and China have harnessed the support of two of Washington’s (former?) allies, namely India and Pakistan, both of which are now full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). 

October 25, 2018. NATO War Games. Largest since Cold War

NATO war games under Operation Trident Juncture commence on October 25, 2018. Trident Juncture 2018 is NATO’s largest exercise since the Cold War.

Around 50.000 troops, 250 aircrafts, aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, 64 vessels and 10,000 vehicles will participate to Nato’s collective defence scenario (Article 5) from 25 October to 7 November 2018.

All Nato’s members as well as NATO partners Finland and Sweden will participate. (See Global Research, October 21, 2018)

***

September 13, 2018. Russia-China-Mongolia War Games in Eastern Siberia. Russia’s Largest War Games Ever

Russia, China and Mongolia undertook The Vostok-2018 drills in eastern Siberia close to China’s border. The exercise was on on massive scale involving 300,000 Russian forces. “The exercises, … involve more than 1,000 military aircrafts as well as up to 36,000 tanks, … China sent about 3,200 troops, 900 combat vehicles, and 30 aircrafts to join the drills” Al Jazeera, September 13, 2018)

September 30, 2018. Russia-Serbia Air Drills 

Together with Serbia, Russia launches air drill: “Pilots of Russia’s Aerospace Defence Forces and the Serbian Air Force and Air Defence will conduct a joint tactical flight exercise BARS-2018 on the territory of the Republic of Serbia.”

The drills will see the militaries from both countries practice intercepting aerial targets, air-to-air engagements and mid-air manoeuvres.

Aircraft will also carry out tactical strikes on ground targets and a search-and-rescue mission.

According to the Russian military, some of its most state-of-the-art planes and choppers will be used, including MiG-29 twin-engine jet fighter aircraft and Mi-8 medium twin-turbine helicopters.

The drills come as Russia revealed it had created one of the world’s most advanced missiles to date.

The Kremlin has boasted about its R-37M missile, which will turn the country’s air force into one of the world’s most fearsome and has a greater range than any belonging to the US military. (Daily Star, UK, September 30, 2018)

October 20, 2018: Russia-India Military Exercises Involving Land Forces, Navy and Air Force

India and Russia initiated a 10-days military exercises involving land forces, navy and air force. The war games were launched in the eastern military district of Russia. The timing of these war games coincides with the onslaught of those conducted by NATO in Scandinavia and the Baltic States.

In the midst of evolving security situation in the region, India and Russia will hold a mega war game in October involving their armies, navies and the air forces for the first time to further ramp up military ties.

The exercise Indra, which will be held in Russia from October 19 to 29, will primarily focus on achieving coordination between forces of the two countries in a tri- services integrated theatre command scenario, military sources said.

Of significance, the Russia-India war games are also marked by the establishment of joint command and control structures between the two countries.

What is at stake is a geopolitical realignment. We are no longer dealing with a bilateral military cooperation agreement. India has not only entered Russia’s military orbit, it is now a full  member together with Pakistan of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

In recent developments, the SCO is evolving towards a de facto collective security arrangement with Russia and China playing a central  role.

In turn, India is slated to acquire Russia’s S400 state of the art air defense system.

December 2018: India-China Joint Military Exercise

It is worth noting that India and China have also reasserted their intent to build upon a military cooperation within the framework of the SCO:

“India and China have agreed to resume the joint military exercise, Hand-in-Hand, which was suspended after the Doklam face-off. In sync with the renewed efforts by both countries to reset ties, the military exercise will take place in the second week of December in Kunming, China.”

October 22, 2018: Russia-Pakistan Joint Military Training

Coinciding with the Russia-India war games (which started on October 20), Russia is also involved in a joint training exercise with Pakistan which started on Monday October 22.

Russian Army Contingent arrived in Pakistan to participate in Pak-Russia Joint Training Excercise ‘Druzhba-III’. This is 3rd exercise as part of Pak-Russia bilateral training cooperation. The 1st Exercise was held in Pakistan during 2016 while 2nd in Russia during 2017. pic.twitter.com/Qbu8zx7tQl

What this ultimately suggests is that neither Pakistan nor India are no longer Washington’s trusted allies.

NATO Reveals Plan for Deploying 4,000 Troops on Russia’s Borders

But also, the conflict between India and Pakistan, which dates back to the British empire, is in the process of being resolved under the auspices of the SCO.

The original source of this article is Global Research

Copyright © Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, 2018

Did Washington get used to the message of S-300? هل تأقلمت واشنطن مع رسالة الـ«أس 300»؟

Did Washington get used to the message of S-300?

أكتوبر 24, 2018

Written by Nasser Kandil,

While Turkey is making a clear progress against Saudi Arabia as two competing countries to be with Iran in any new regional formula, it is not a secret that the points of strength of Turkey come from the positioning in between Washington and Moscow as two sponsors of the new regional system which Moscow’s administration is recognized by America. Turkey seems Russia’s candidate which is accepted by America, versus Saudi Arabia which is backed by Israel after the announced alliance between the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the Prime Minister of the occupation entity Benjamin Netanyahu and the sponsorship of the US President Donald Trump and his son in –law Jared Kushner through what is called as “the deal of the century” as a solution for the Palestinian cause and the declaration of Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran. It seems that the regression of Saudi Arabia is an interpretation of its failure in promoting the deal of the century and its turning into an actual deal that opens a new path in the regional balances. So it pays the cost of this failure and its failure in the war on Yemen. The repercussions of the case of Gamal Al Khashoggi seem closer to the required context to ensure the Saudi regression as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in the early nineties was closer to the required scenario to overthrow the Iraqi regime.

The Russian victory in enhancing the position of Turkey instead of Saudi Arabia under US consent is expressed by the deal of the American pastor who was detained in Ankara and who was released yesterday, and is expressed by the understandings on the Turkish-American patrols in Manbej in the north of Syria. The return to the talk about Turkish-American normalization is based on the American coexistence with the Turkish arming with S-400 Russian missiles and on the Turkish economic strategic understandings that are related to the nuclear energy and the oil and gas market. Meantime there were questions about the status of Israel in the new regional system which its rules must be settled in the final stage of negotiations before the emergence of the final draft of settlement about the course of the war on Syria which is in its last quarter as recognized by everyone.

Israel which its bet on “the deal of century” failed despite Washington’s abidance by its obligations to the Saudi –Israeli bilateral to promote the concept of settlement on which the deal is based according to the Israeli vision and Saudi consent, and which is about removing the issues of the future of Jerusalem and the case of immigrants from the negotiation is aware that it will pay with Saudi Arabia the bill of failure which Washington cannot bear its consequences. Israel is the sponsor of the Saudi project in Washington through the bet on what could be done by the Saudi Crown Prince in case he assumes the Saudi, Arab, and Islamic leadership. Therefore it has to bear the consequences of its bets after Bin Salman’s failure in finding the Palestinian partner in the deal of the century,  his failure in the war on Yemen, and his most dangerous failure in keeping the status of Pakistan in the American-Israeli alliance. Israel lost the opportunity to reserve its seat for an attainable peace project; therefore, the threat of war is its only alternative solution.

The developments of the Russian-Israeli relationship in the equations and balances of the power in Syria which coincided with Syria’s deployment of S-300 under Russian sponsorship raised major questions about the ability of Israel to reserve its seat by the force of the military sabotage, especially because there is no hope for Israel in any military action against Iran. The balance of deterrence on the Lebanese front is increasingly coherent. Israel tried to absorb the shock by claiming that granting S-300 does not change its ability to move in the Syrian airspace, resorting to the scientific fiction to talk about the capacities of the modern US aircraft F-35 as the available counterpart to S-300. It opens a dangerous race between the capabilities of the Russian and American weapons, the Russian military promised in case the emergence of F-35 to drop it down even if this required the use of S-400 batteries. It is known that the Russian and the American leadership keenness not to involve in such a race because it will distort the reputation of the Russian and American weapons and will lead to a big loss in the secrets of the modern weapons, since the dedication to technological arming is undesirable.

The US statements issued by the US Department about S-300 and its handing over to Syria suggested the Israeli desire to violate the capabilities of the Russian system, since the Russian decision of escalation is dangerous that has severe consequences, while the statements of the Ministry of Defense in the name of the coalition in the war on ISIS were reversed, they stated that deployment of S-300 does not affect the act of the coalition forces in its war on ISIS. It seems that Washington decided to adapt with the change imposed by Russia, it announced yesterday its withdrawal of F-35 aircraft due to a technical failure after the fall of one of the aircraft on a training mission, after the Americans had decided to develop F-35 in a way that it can compete S-300, while the Russians say that one of the planes which Israel has only seven of fell a year ago by S-200 not S-300 and the Israelis claimed its fall after its clash with a flying object.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

هل تأقلمت واشنطن مع رسالة الـ«أس 300»؟

أكتوبر 13, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– في الوقت الذي تسجل تركيا تقدماً واضحاً بالنقاط على السعودية كمرشحين متنافسين للجلوس مقابل إيران في أي صيغة نظام إقليمي جديد، لا يمكن إخفاء حقيقة نقاط القوة التركية المتأتية من التموضع في منطقة الوسط بين واشنطن وموسكو، كراعيين للنظام الإقليمي الجديد الذي صارت إدارة موسكو له موضع تسليم أميركي. وتبدو تركيا مرشح روسيا المقبول أميركياً، مقابل السعودية التي تدعمها «إسرائيل» بعد التحالف المعلن بين ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان ورئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو ورعاية الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب وصهره جارد كوشنر عبر ما سُمّي بصفقة القرن، كإطار لحل القضية الفلسطينية وإعلان تحالف عربي إسرائيلي بوجه إيران. ويبدو التراجع الذي تسجله السعودية ترجمة لفشلها في تسويق صفقة القرن وتحويلها إلى صفقة فعلية تفتح مساراً جديداً في توازنات المنطقة، وتدفع السعودية ثمن هذا الفشل إلى جانب فشلها في الفوز في حرب اليمن، بحيث بدت التداعيات الناتجة عن قضية جمال الخاشقجي أقرب للسياق المطلوب لتثبيت التراجع السعودي، كما كان غزو العراق للكويت مطلع التسعينيات أقرب للسيناريو المرسوم لإسقاط النظام العراقي.

– الفوز الروسي بتثبيت تركيا مكان السعودية برضا أميركي تعبر عنه صفقة القس الأميركي المحتجز في أنقرة والذي أفرج عنه أمس، كما تعبر عنه التفاهمات حول الدوريات التركية الأميركية في منبج شمال سورية، وعودة الحديث عن تطبيع تركي أميركي، يقوم على التعايش الأميركي مع التسلح التركي بصواريخ الـ»أس 400» الروسية، ومع تفاهمات اقتصادية استراتيجية تركية روسية تطال الطاقة النووية وسوق النفط والغاز، تقابله تساؤلات حول مكانة «إسرائيل» في النظام الإقليمي الجديد الذي لا بد لقواعد تشكيله أن تتبلور في المراحل الأخيرة من التجاذبات قبل ظهور النسخة الأخيرة للتسوية حول مسار الحرب التي شهدتها سورية، والتي يسلم الجميع بدخولها ربع الساعة الأخير.

– تدرك «إسرائيل» التي فشل رهانها على صفقة القرن، رغم إيفاء واشنطن بالتزاماتها للثنائي السعودي الإسرائيلي لجهة إطلاق الصدمة اللازمة لتسويق مفهوم التسوية التي تقوم عليها الصفقة، وفقاً لمقتضيات الرؤيا الإسرائيلية بقبول سعودي، ومحورها سحب مستقبل القدس وقضية اللاجئين من جدول التفاوض، أنها تدفع مع السعودية فاتورة هذا الفشل الذي لا تتحمل واشنطن تبعاته، فـ»إسرائيل» هي عراب المشروع السعودي في واشنطن من باب الرهان على ما يستطيعه ولي العهد السعودي في حال إطلاق يده في الزعامة السعودية والعربية والإسلامية، وعليها تحمل تبعات رهانها، مع فشل إبن سلمان في تأمين الشريك الفلسطيني في صفقة القرن، وفشله في حرب اليمن، وفشله الأخطر في الحفاظ على مكانة باكستان في الحلف الأميركي الإسرائيلي، بحيث فقدت «إسرائيل» أي فرصة للتحدث عن حجز مقعدها بقوة امتلاك مشروع للسلام قابل للتحقيق، وبقيت القدرة على التهديد بالحرب طريقاً وحيدة بديلة.

– جاءت التطورات التي شهدتها العلاقة الروسية الإسرائيلية في معادلات وتوازنات القوة في سورية مع نشر بطاريات الـ»أس 300» من قبل الجيش السوري برعاية روسية، لترسم أسئلة كبرى حول قدرة «إسرائيل» حجز مقعدها بقوة التهديد بالتخريب العسكري، خصوصاً أن لا أمل لـ»إسرائيل» برهان على عمل عسكري بوجه إيران، وتوازن الردع على جبهة لبنان يزداد تماسكاً بوجهها، وقد حاولت «إسرائيل» امتصاص الصدمة بالادعاء أن نشر الـ»أس 300» لا يغير في قدرتها على العمل في الأجواء السورية، مستعينة بالخيال العلمي للتحدث عن مقدرات الطائرة الأميركية الحديثة الـ»إف 35»، كردٍّ متاح على مقدرات الـ»أس 300»، فاتحة بذلك سباقاً خطيراً بين مقدرات السلاحين الروسي والأميركي، بحيث وعد عسكريون روس في حال ظهور الـ»إف 35» بإسقاطها ولو استدعى ذلك استعمال بطاريات الـ»إس 400»، ومعلوم حرص القيادتين العسكريتين الروسية والأميركية على أن التورط في سباق من هذا النوع سيلحق الأذى بسمعة السلاحين الروسي والأميركي ويوقع الطرفين في خسارة أسرار الأسلحة الحديثة، والتفرغ لسباق تسلح تكنولوجي غير مرغوب.

– التصريحات الأميركية الصادرة عن وزارة الخارجية حول الـ»أس 300» وتسليمه إلى سورية أوحت بتبني الرغبة الإسرائيلية باختراق مقدرات المنظومة الروسية، باعتبار القرار الروسي تصعيداً خطيراً يرتب تبعات وخيمة، فيما جاءت تصريحات وزارة الدفاع التي وردت ببيان باسم تحالف الحرب على داعش معاكسة، بالقول إن نشر الـ»أس 300» لا يؤثر على عمل قوات التحالف في حربها على داعش، ليبدو أن واشنطن قررت التأقلم مع التغيير الذي فرضته روسيا، ويجدون المخرج لذلك بالإعلان أمس عن سحب طائرات الـ»إف 35» من العمل لعطل تقني فيها بعد سقوط إحدى الطائرات في مهمة تدريبية، بعدما كان الأميركيون قد أعلنوا البدء بتجارب لتطوير الـ»إف 35» بما يؤهلها للقدرة على التعامل مع صواريخ «أس 300»، بينما يقول الروس إن الطائرة التي تمتلك «إسرائيل» منها سبعاً فقط قد سقطت واحدة منها قبل عام بصاروخ «أس 200» وليس «أس 300» وادعى الإسرائيليون أن سقوطها تم بعد اصطدامها بجسم طائر.

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Imran Khan’s Patriotic Leadership Secures a $3 Billion Loan to Ease Crisis

By Adam Garrie
Soruce

Saudi Arabia has recently been making headlines for all of the wrong reasons. While the $10 billion investment agreement that will see Riyadh join the Belt and Road initiative by building a new oil refinery in Pakistan’s Gwadar port city, this story has generally be buried beneath those discussing the murder of Saudi born journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. But while for nations with the economic luxury of investigating the Khashoggi matter, business might not proceed with Riyadh as usual, for Pakistan, there is a crisis at hand that effects not the family of a single slain man but the lives of over 200 million Pakistanis.

Decades of domestic mismanagement in respect of the Pakistani economy appears to have forced Islamabad back to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new bailout to stop Pakistan’s current account deficit from causing a major economic crisis. While Prime Minister Imran Khan recently stated that he will approach three nations (which he did not name) prior to approaching the IMF, further statements from Pakistan’s government indicate that a new IMF bailout may be inevitable. That being said, Pakistan has yet to formally make the request to the IMF.

The risk of Pakistan not being able to pay back its debts due to the domestic current accounts deficit has led Imran Khan to suggest that a possible hybrid solution involving a smaller IMF loan in combination with loan agreements with sovereign partners may be the best way forward. It is against this background that Imran met with top Saudi officials including King Salman in Riyadh where he is attending the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference, sometimes called the “Davos in the desert”.

During a lengthy interview before attendees of the FII conference, Imran Khan spoke candidly about the pressing matter of a monetary injection either from an cooperative partner nation, the IMF of both. He also laid bear the reality that economic reforms implemented today might not achieve their full desired goal for months or even a year. That being said, Imran balanced this honest and frank assessment against his medium and long term goal to rejuvenate Pakistan’s founding mission as articulated by national father Muhammad Ali Jinnah who sought to built a state where the welfare of all citizens was collectively assured through progressive measures designed to enhance social harmony.

Turning to his nation’s relationship with China, the Pakistani Prime Minister stated that as a country that was able to lift 700 million people out of poverty in thirty years, China is naturally an inspiration for Pakistan as Imran looks to elevate the condition of his people in the most rapid fashion possible. Iman Khan went on to speak of the great economic potential of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and in particular the Gwadar port. He then invited members of the international business community to invest in the special economic zones that are being built at Gwadar while drawing a helpful comparison to Gwadar’s deep water port to that of Singapore. Imran Khan then reflected on the modern housing programme his government has just inaugurated.

In addition to explaining to his audience of Saudi and international investors that Pakistan is a resource rich country ripe for forward looking foreign direct investment, the Prime Minister further explained how years of a war on terror which saw extremists enter into Pakistan from the Afghan side of the Durand Line made many international investors concerned with the safety of investments in Pakistan. While Pakistan has largely won its own war on terror thanks to the professionalism of the security services that Imran paid tribute to, this fact remains scarcely reported outside of Pakistan. Therefore it was of supreme importance that Imran explained that while Pakistan’s economy is current going through a difficult period, that this is partly do to the supreme sacrifices that Pakistan made to rid itself of the plague of terrorist extremism. In this sense, Pakistan today is not only a sound investment but in a literal sense it is also a safe one.

In making the point that whilst Pakistan was one of the fastest growing economies in Asia during the 1960s but that subsequent decades of poor governance meant that the country “lost its way”, today under his government, Imran Khan looks to restore balance to society while attracting unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment.

Iman Khan’s statement was focused, honest and deeply informed. For the first time in decades, Pakistan has a highly articulate Prime Minister who is willing and able to act as an economic ambassador whose mission is to secure the best possible future for his fellow Pakistanis. The long term future is of course a bright one as CPEC and related projects will doubtless flourish in future years and decades. Therefore, Pakistan’s challenge in the immediate term is to secure credit lines with reliable and trustworthy partners who can help Islamabad to get over the current obstacles erected by a combination of poor governance from recent decades and a nationally exhausting war against extremism that was won at a great price to society.

By focusing on Pakistan and its relations with its traditional partners including China and his Saudi Arabian hosts, Imran Khan has not fallen victim to vainglorious temptations that were so attractive to many of his predecessors. Rather than speak as though he was more concerned with remote issues than those facing his people, Iman Khan spoke about what Pakistan needs, wants and can offer. This is mature statesmanship that offers the best possible solution to the present current accounts deficit issue.

While much of the world, including and especially Europe tries to exploit the tragedy of others for its own gain, Pakistan’s new Prime Minsiter has demonstrated calm, decisive and honest leadership at a time when anything else could harm Pakistan’s fortunes greatly. While some domestic opponents continue to argue among themselves, Imran Khan is making the case for Pakistan’s future to those who are in a position to extend a helping hand on a win-win basis. This is the difference between decades of failure and the potential of Naya Pakistan (New Pakistan).

As a result of Imran Khan’s discussions with the Saudi King and Crown Prince, Riyadh has agreed to loan Pakistan $3 billion as part of a year long credit agreement. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will allow Pakistan to defer payments for oil imports up to the amount of an additional $3 billion in an agreement set to last for one year. With Imran Khan soon to visit China, there is now hope that Pakistan can help to cut its deficit through a series of loans from friendly nations.