Monday, November 21, 2016
In the time of the major accelerated changes في زمن التحولات الكبرى المتسارعة
The war on Syria is the war of twenty-first century; from its womb the new international and new regional systems will be born.
نوفمبر 21, 2016
Written by Nasser Kandil,
It is easy for the followers of this column for nearly three years to see a dominant graphic line in the readings which provide the readers with the ongoing events in the world, the region, and Lebanon, and which form political intellectual background in approaching the variables, the developments, and the center of the principles on which this background based on and stems from. America which we knew is no longer exist; it has changed to the extent of coping with an international role less important but more inclined to settlements, after the running out of its social and human capacity for waging wars. Israel does not differ from America in this respect, but only regarding the state of denial which occupies the minds of its leaders. Saudi Arabia is as Israel and as the rest of the allies in Turkey, France, and Britain. The war on Syria is the war of twenty-first century; from its womb the new international and new regional systems will be born. Russia along with China will be the first international player in the Middle East at least. Iran will be the greatest country in the region, while the recommendations of the US Baker-Hamilton Committee which include the Democratic and the Republican parties to cope with the variables are followed without announcement. They are the background of the understanding with Russia and the understanding on the nuclear program with Iran, as well as in somewhere it is the background for the arrival of the Republican Donald Trump and his extremist team to presidency, contrary to what he would do totally from the regression of America from the wars to the inside.
The rhythm of reading events in this column is in harmony with the expectations, which some of them are Russian military reposition on the Mediterranean and some of them signing the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program and the exclusion of the choice of the US direct military involvement in the war of Syria, as well as the inevitability of the birth of a Yemeni understanding that ends the war in accordance to the demands of Al Houthis of a unified government, and considering the Russian American understanding vivid in Syria even with suspension till the resolution in Aleppo, moreover the inevitability of the coming of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri to meet the presidential choice of Hezbollah in Lebanon which is represented by the General Michael Aoun. All these expectations are ruled by a specific time ceiling that rules the American movement, the steps are being accelerated whenever it becomes closer, it is the date of the departure of the last US soldier from Afghanistan. It is the date which was scheduled at the end of 2014 but was extended till the end of the mandate of the US President Barack Obama in the middle of January 2017. This calendar has been carried out successively according to this date, the closer this deadline becomes the steps will seem dramatic towards the endings.
Resolving the situation in Aleppo and a political solution in Yemen will ensure the announced process in the US Russian understanding in the war on ISIS and Al Nusra, and will justify the Saudi reposition to negotiate with Iran after it appeared in Lebanon and appears in Yemen that the understanding through meditation is possible towards the starting of the mandate of the new US President in preparation to a summit that includes him with the Russian President who returns to a new term to draw the maps of the international cooperation, where Syria under the leadership of President Bashar Al-Assad is a pillar in the equations of the new Middle East and Hezbollah is a major regional power, and where it was impossible according to the maps and the US coping with the facts the arrival of Hillary Clinton. We stayed offering to the readers a wide window on the so-called the surprise of the arrival of Donald Trump to the US Presidency, despite the flow of expectations and the reverse polls.
The next few days will be critical in all hot issues, sixty days versus sixty months, a new event every day. Lebanon which competed the variables through an insurance policy that is similar to the birth of the government of Tammam Salam through sudden change of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Haririr expresses the direction of the coming wind, while what is going on there and what is going on in Yemen and what will happen in Syria are the items of the Russian US understanding which are carried out successively, as the US Russian understanding and the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program are the items of Baker-Hamilton document which are implemented consecutively.
The Lebanese people will do well if they make use rapidly of the background of the settlements through resolving the terrorism with Russian American support, and if they rush to a modern election law and a collective government before and after it, In this case they will prove the political maturity.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,